Johnny Benson

The fourth race on the Sprint Cup schedule is Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and Carl Edwards, who has about as impressive a resume as any driver could have at the 1.5-mile venue, is my pick to get his first win of the season.

Working in Edwards' favor
It will be the exception to the rule if the Roush Fenway Racing driver doesn't have a solid performance at AMS, which really suits his driving style, and which is very special to him since it's where he captured the first Cup win of his career in March of 2005.

And if it’s success he’s after at AMS, he’s with the right organization. Roush Fenway Racing Ford's have made 139 starts at the 1.54-mile track. In those starts, they have six wins, 33 top-fives, and 60 top-10s.

Edwards has three of those wins, including one in the fall event last year. Overall at AMS, he has five top-fives, and seven top-10s to go with his trio of victories. His average start is 8.7, and his average finish is 11.6.

No question AMS has been very good to him, and so it's no surprise he proclaims it as one of his favorite tracks. Edwards always has fast equipment at AMS.

In this event last year, it looked like he was on his way to a win when his engine gave out with 51 laps left in the race. This time around he will be in a new car that was used as a backup car last season but never raced.

Also what must be factored in is Edwards can fly at the top of the track as well as any of his competitors and better than most. One glance at him running high, and it's clear that he's not only breezing through lap after lap, he shows no fear over having to race real, real close to the wall, which is key to being quick up high at AMS.

Edwards doesn't mind taking the risk of running that close to trouble. A lot of times it will pay off, but there's always the chance the wall will get the best of him and wreck his day.

Other drivers to watch
Tony Stewart seldom qualifies well at AMS, but has some strong runs and two wins despite that. The two-time Cup champion made it to Victory Lane in the 2002 spring race, and dominated the field in the fall race of 2006, leading for 146 of the 325 laps before he literally grabbed the checkered flag in celebration.

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He also nearly triumphed again in March of 2007, but Jimmie Johnson used the low groove to pass him for the win in the final two laps. In 20 Cup starts at AMS, Stewart has one pole, eight top-fives, and 12 top-10s. His average start is 16.7, and average finish is 12.3.

Stewart loves running the bottom at AMS, and he never moves off of it. If anybody can make that strategy work at this quad-oval, it’s Stewart. He disciplines himself enough getting into the corner to be able to run the bottom the whole race.

Kyle Busch won this event last year, leading for 173 laps, including 49 of the last 50. It was an emotional victory as it ended a 147-race winless streak for the No. 18 car of Joe Gibbs Racing. Busch went on to get seven more wins last season, marking the rebirth of the No. 18.

And he comes into Sunday’s 500-miler with momentum, having won last week at Las Vegas, his hometown track, where he led for 51 laps. This will be Busch’s 10th Cup start at AMS, where besides his win he has two top-fives, and two top-10s. His average start is 16.6, and average finish is 18.2.

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Jimmie Johnson swept both AMS races in 2007 while last March he started 11th and came home 13th. Last fall, he rallied from a lap down to finish second. In his last 11 races at this venue, he has crossed the checkers fourth or better in all but three starts. The El Cajon, Calif. native will be making his 16th Atlanta Cup start having registered three wins, one pole, nine top-fives and ten top-10s. His average start is 8.1, and his average finish is 9.1.

One of Johnson’s teammates at Hendrick Motorsports, four-time Cup champion Jeff Gordon, is dangerous on most tracks. True, he has not won at AMS since 2003, but Gordon will be tough to count out of being a top contender when you consider that in 33 Cup starts at this venue, he has four wins, two poles, 13 top-fives, and 21 top-10s. His average start is 12.9, and his average finish is 12.7.

My dark horse is Bobby Labonte, who is in his first season with Hall of Fame Racing after three years at Petty Enterprises. Labonte has not been to Victory Lane since 2003, but he has had a ton of success at AMS, where in 32 Cup starts he has six wins, two poles, 12 top-fives, and 13 top-10s. His average start is 16.4, and his average finish is 16.6.