Examining four things to watch in free agency
In a field filled with mediocre free agents, questions about spending abound
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During the first 72 hours of free agency last February, 39 NFL players signed contracts worth a total of $714 million.
Among the most active teams? The Raiders. They did deals with safety Gibril Wilson, receiver Javon Walker and corner DeAngelo Hall that were worth $161 million combined. The Raiders went 5-11.
Among the least active teams? Tennessee. Six players walked on the Titans. They signed only one in the first several days of free agency. The Titans went 13-3.
The Jets signed a passel of big-name veterans. Didn’t make the playoffs. The Cardinals signed mostly bit players. Made it to the Super Bowl.
Cautionary tales about wild spending abound. Will teams pay attention to them when the 2009 free agent sweepstakes opens at 12:01 a.m. Friday?
Depends.
Thomas Dimitroff, GM of the Atlanta Falcons, told USA Today, “To throw double-digit millions in guaranteed money and a high average-per-year money into a player who is not a part of your system and coming from another situation, that really has me back on my heels a little bit, to be honest with you.”
Of course, Dimitroff’s now speaking from a position of strength. Atlanta made the playoffs and the franchise arrow is pointing straight up. Last February the Falcons were in a far different spot. So Dimitroff and company signed San Diego running back Michael Turner — the crown jewel of the offensive free agents — to a six-year, $34 million deal with $15 million guaranteed.
With that in mind, here are four things to watch for in 2009 free agency.
1) Prince Albert In a Can?
Rumors are rampant that Albert Haynesworth, the most talented free agent in this year’s class, is packaged and ready to be delivered to the Washington Redskins. Haynesworth, a force at defensive tackle for the Titans, even did an hour-long, pre-free agency sit-down this week with WUSA, a D.C. TV station, and peppered his interviewer with questions about our nation’s capitol. If Haynesworth doesn’t have a wink-nod deal in place with the 'Skins, he’s not helping himself. Other teams aren’t going to want to host Haynesworth if he’s only visiting to drive up the offer of his initial bidder. It’s a waste of time, and it can only make the second team look bad that they couldn’t get a deal done. If Haynesworth doesn’t sign with Washington in the first 24-48 hours of free agency, it will be interesting to see which other teams step up to host him. And the kind of deal Haynesworth gets bears watching as well. He’s never played a 16-game season, has 14.5 of his 24 career sacks the past two years and can be a temperamental soul given to stomping on helmetless heads in fits of pique and driving so fast the cops take notice.
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2) Back Nine Superstars
Teams move early to sew up their young talent. Among the first 20 players named on Sporting News’ Top 99 free agents list, only five are under 30 and headed for the open market. All the others have either been franchised, are restricted free agents or have re-signed with their teams. This leaves a talented group of players on the wrong side of 30 hitting the market. Among them are quarterback Kurt Warner (ranked No. 5, age 37), receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh (7, 31), linebacker Ray Lewis (10, 33), defensive end Bertrand Berry (18, 33) and safety Brian Dawkins (20, 35). Add in the players flooding the market late — Derrick Brooks (36), Joey Galloway (37), Warrick Dunn (34) and Marvin Harrison (36), to name a few — and the other respectable veterans who’ve been heading there — Darren Sharper (33), Kerry Collins (32) and Matt Birk (32) — and there’s a ton of combined Pro Bowls and a couple Hall of Fame hopefuls available. Where will these players fit best? Can they make the break and go someplace else, as Ray Lewis has hinted he’ll do from the Ravens? Will they go to the highest bidder or take less to play in a place where they believe they can win a title? And will they be able to deal with the fiscal realities that are imposed on them when teams slide an offer across the table that pays them a whole lot less than they think they’re worth?
3) Trade winds Blowing?
Julius Peppers isn’t pleased about getting franchised by the Panthers. Matt Cassel got franchised by the Patriots and, while he’ll happily take the $14.65 million that’s coming to him if he spends 2009 backing up Tom Brady, he’d rather play. Both of these players are going to be the subject of exploratory talks to see what it would take to wrest them from their present addresses. In Cassel’s case, the window of opportunity to get something done that benefits the team acquiring him begins closing in mid-June. If he’s going to come in and run a team, he needs to learn a team’s system and personnel. And at the price he’ll command — probably multiple picks and a deal in the neighborhood of $50 million — he’s going to be someone’s starter. A team interested in Cassel will likely need to work out a contract with him and his agent David Dunn then work out compensation with the Patriots. Tampa Bay, which cleared a ton of cap space with its veteran purge, is emerging as the most likely landing spot. As for Peppers, he’s made it clear he doesn’t want to play for Carolina anymore. How militant the mild-mannered defensive end will get and whether a team might consider putting up a pair of first-round picks for his services are intriguing free agent subplots.
4) How Does the Money Flow?
Aside from Haynesworth, there aren’t any players with the talent to alter a franchise both immediately and for the long-term. T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s a nice player who’s benefited greatly from being opposite Chad Johnson. He’s an excellent No. 2 or a poor man’s No. 1. Ray Lewis can change a team, but for how long? Really, the market is flooded with players who are mid-level free agents. Will teams spend on these players as if they can change the fortune of their teams as the Eagles and Niners did with corners Asante Samuel and Nate Clements in the past two years? Or will they exercise more restraint even with a salary cap of $127 million for 2009? And if restraint is exercised, how long before the players, their agents and the NFLPA start crying collusion?
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