Johnny Benson

Carl Edwards and the No. 99 Ford of Roush Fenway Racing aren’t California dreamin' over a second straight win in the Auto Club 500 on Sunday in Fontana, Calif.

They’re confident and primed to get the job done, and Edwards is my pick to make it to Victory Lane – just like he did last February at the 2-mile, D-shaped oval.

Working in Edwards’ favor
When it comes to racing at intermediate tracks like the Auto Club Speedway, Edwards is one tough driver to beat. He ranks second in the Sprint Cup Series at these venues. Last year, in addition to winning this event, he also picked up intermediate-track wins at Atlanta, Homestead-Miami, Las Vegas, and Michigan. At Texas, he finished second.

Coming off last year, Edwards and his team should start out the strongest on the intermediate tracks. From what I see, this team already has it together. Edwards is looking to do what he did in 2008, and that is get off to a fast start. Last year, he won three of his first seven races. He’d love to be in the same boat this season by jumping out early on the field.

In winning last year, Edwards started ninth and raced well. He led 64 laps to pick up the first of his nine wins in 2008. In nine Cup starts at Fontana, Edwards has one pole, six top-fives, and eight top-10s to go with his victory. His average start is 17.8, and his average finish is 6.7.

Edwards made the Chase for the Championship last season, and save a couple of bad results, could have captured the title. As it was, he put the heat on winner Jimmie Johnson by getting to Victory Lane in three of the final four races in the playoff. He came up 69 points short of his first series championship.

In coming so close to a title in 2008, Edwards learned a lot. He’ll put what he learned to use throughout this season. He won’t make the mistake he made at Talladega last year, and is a smarter driver going into this season’s championship hunt.

Other drivers to watch
The only driver with a higher ranking on intermediate tracks than Edwards is Kyle Busch. Last year, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver picked up four wins on intermediate tracks, taking the checkers at Atlanta, Chicago, Darlington, and Dover. Busch seldom comes away disappointed when running at these types of venues.

At Fontana, Busch has led 229 laps in nine previous Cup starts. He has completed all but one lap available to him in those races, finishing 2,254 of the total of 2,255. Overall, he has a win, a pole, three top-fives, and seven top-10s. His average start is 12.3, and his average finish is 9.9. He’s also done well at this track in the NASCAR Nationwide Series, leading for 213 laps.

Last week at Daytona, Busch gave all a hint at how strong he could be this year. The 23-year old dominated the first 123 laps, and lead twice for a race-high 88 laps, but then got caught up in a wreck, and had his day ruined.

In 2008 Busch had a great season up until the Chase for the Championship. He struggled in the playoff, and that is something he wants desperately to reverse this season. Expect a real strong showing from him this year. He’s a fierce competitor, and he wants another shot at winning the championship.

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Tony Stewart is out on his own this season, having left Joe Gibbs Racing to form Stewart-Haas Racing. He’s got a lot of drive and passion in proving wrong those who are of the opinion he made the wrong move. Don’t underestimate Stewart as he was eighth in the Daytona 500 last weekend, overcoming some hurdles to post that top 10. That’s a very good beginning for a new team.

Stewart doesn’t knock the competition dead at intermediate tracks, ranking 13th. At Fontana, he has made 15 Cup starts. He has three top-fives, and seven top-10s. His best overall finish is fourth, which he accomplished twice. But Stewart is back in a Chevrolet, and he has momentum coming off last week. Knowing his makeup, he’ll be gunning for a real strong run at Fontana.

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Jeff Gordon has had his share of success at Fontana. The four-time Cup champion has made 17 starts at the track, picking up three wins, two poles, eight top-fives, and eight top-10s. He had the pole for this event in 2007, and last year he finished third. He ranks seventh at intermediate tracks.

One of Gordon’s teammates at Hendrick Motorsports, Jimmie Johnson, has three wins at Fontana, including a victory last August, when he dominated by leading for 228 of 250 laps. In 12 Cups starts at the track, he has two poles, eight top-fives, and eight top-10s to go along with his three wins. His average start is 9.8, and his average finish is 5.9.

Johnson, who ranks third at intermediate tracks, is the three-time defending Cup champion, and while he may feel some pressure over winning a fourth straight title, he and his team have a lot of confidence they will be up to the task.

My dark horse is Kasey Kahne, who excels on intermediate tracks with the vast majority of his wins coming on them.

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