Sean Deveney

In the 2005-06 season, the NBA's luxury tax threshold came in at $61.7 million. The next year, it was $65.4 million, and after that, in '07-08, it was $67.9 million. This year, it's $71.15 million.

See a pattern there? The tax threshold always goes up, somewhere in the $3 million to $4 million range each year. So, if you were a general manager planning out the future of your team's payroll as you acquired players and signed contracts last July, you were probably thinking the tax threshold for next year — 2009-10 — would be at least $74 million. The stock market was sliding some at the time, but it was still well over 11,000. Then the economy was hit with a brutal September, and here we are in February still in a financial crisis, with the stock market opening the day below 8,000.

Now, if you're a GM heading into the trading deadline next week, you have some big worries. You might have looked ahead to next year and planned on a payroll of $73 million, thinking you'd be comfortably under the luxury tax. But the luxury tax threshold is based on how much income the NBA earns worldwide. Because the plummeting economy has weakened the league's revenue streams, sometime in the past few months, a pretty cold reality struck every NBA exec out there: Next year's luxury tax threshold will probably be lower than this year's. If you were planning on a payroll of $73 million, you'd better do some cutting, and fast.

More than chemistry issues, more than the desire to make a push for a championship, more than creating cap space to pursue free agents next summer or in 2010, the issue of the sunken economy and the resulting lowering of the luxury tax is the driving force of this year's trade market.

"A lot of the names you hear in trade talks you wouldn't have heard six months ago," one Eastern Conference general manager said. "There's a little bit of panic. No one wants to be a taxpayer, and the trade deadline is the last chance to get under the [tax threshold]. There are franchise players who can be had."

We can look at three teams currently wrapped up in trade rumors to see just how all this works, and why sound basketball logic will not be the basis on which trades at this year's deadline are made:

THE SUNS
The luxury tax is the reason Amare Stoudemire is on the block. Yes, he is a frustrating and stubborn talent who hadn't exactly endeared himself to teammates and coaches. Those are good reasons to deal him. But he is also only 26 years old and a potentially dominant 6-10 forward/center. No one would deal that kind of player without some additional motivation.

Phoenix's payroll is more than $75 million this year, which means the Suns will probably pay the luxury tax. But their payroll figures to be slightly more next year. Let's project it at $77 million. If the tax threshold comes down — let's say it comes in at $69 million, a conservative estimate — the Suns will be deep into tax territory. The Suns would have to pay a dollar for every dollar over the tax. Using those figures as examples, the Suns would have to pay the league $8 million in tax, which (and this is the insult added to the injury) would be distributed among teams that were under the threshold.

This is the reason owners hate paying the tax — it's not just money out of their pockets for nothing, it's money into the pockets of everyone else.

THE WIZARDS
It's not just Phoenix. Look at Washington, which is locked into a payroll of about $76 million next year. That will put the Wizards — coming off an awful season in which they rank 21st in attendance — well into the tax, and with little recourse for getting under the threshold. The only Wizards who have trade value are Antawn Jamison (who is 32 and has three years and $40 million on his contract, making him tough to move) and Caron Butler.

At 28 years old, with All-Star talent and a reasonable two years and $20 million left on his contract, Butler is the kind of player the Wizards would never have considered trading in normal times. But the times are not normal. If Washington is to get under the tax, dealing Butler is probably the only way to do it. He is their only asset.

Special feature Free agent class of 2010 A look at the many superstars that will be hitting the free agent market. NBCSports.com

THE HORNETS
The same could be said for the Hornets' shopping of center Tyson Chandler, a legitimate 7-1 big man who rebounds, blocks shots and has a good rapport with the team's cornerstone point guard, Chris Paul. Why would the Hornets consider dealing Chandler for Heat forward Shawn Marion, when the team has Peja Stojakovic and David West? Because of the luxury tax.

Paul's pay raise kicks in next year, which pushes New Orleans' payroll to more than $76 million — again, deep into tax territory. The Hornets can't get out of that by making minor moves. They need to dump one of their big-money players. It won't be Paul, of course. It won't be Stojakovic. No one would take him at his present salary (two years and almost $30 million remaining). Trading West, an All-Star with a reasonable contract (two years, $17 million) is unlikely.

That leaves only Chandler, who will make nearly $12 million next summer. Marion's contract is up after this year. Swap Chandler for Marion, let Marion walk in free agency, and the Hornets will get themselves under the cap.

The move would not make New Orleans a better team, of course. But the situations of these three teams show that team improvement is not necessarily going to be the goal of all teams at the trading deadline. Because of the expected shrink in the tax threshold, we're going to see economic driving the trade market this year more than ever.

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