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Super Bowl props: Sucker bets or smart plays?

Stay away from proposition wagers that don't involve research, knowledge

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OPINION
By Al DeMarco
updated 2:39 p.m. ET Jan. 29, 2009

Will Kurt Warner complete 24 or more passes in Sunday's Super Bowl against Pittsburgh's No. 1 ranked defense?

Will Bruce Springsteen kick off the halftime show by singing Born in the USA or Born to Run?

Will either the Steelers or Cardinals score in the last two minutes of the first half?

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Will President Obama revive an old tradition and call the winning Super Bowl team before NBC's telecast goes off the air?

These are just some of the 250 or so proposition plays available either in Las Vegas or at offshore sportsbooks. And despite their somewhat whimsical nature, gamblers love them.

It is estimated that nearly one-third of the money wagered on Sunday's Super Bowl will come from proposition plays. Last year $92.1-million was bet at Nevada's sportsbooks on the Giants-Patriots; estimates pegged prop plays as being responsible for around $30 million of what is known in betting circles as the "handle" for the game.

Prop plays are fun, but keep in mind they're designed to separate gamblers from the money in their wallet. Last year was only the second time in 18 years when Las Vegas lost money on a Super Bowl as Nevada's sportsbooks collectively dropped $2.8-million. Let's shed no tears, however, for Sin City as the books earned $13.9-million when the Colts beat the Bears a year earlier, and a cool $9.3-million when the Steelers stopped the Seahawks two years back.

Are proposition plays simply sucker bets? To a large extent, they are, but that doesn't mean you can't make money on them by doing a little research. My advice based on 25 years as a professional handicapper is to avoid the "game of chance" props while focusing on plays that are near even-money or underdog wagers.

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Compare the offensive, defensive starters for the Steelers and Cardinals.

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One of the most popular proposition plays is betting on whether the coin toss will be heads or tails. Mathematically, you've got the same 50-50 chance of winning that bet as you would on whether the Steelers or Cardinals cover the point spread. In reality, however, wagering on the coin toss is as foolish as playing a game at a carnival's midway; it's nothing more than a game of chance with no data to support one side of the coin or the other, so to speak. Bet on who will cover the spread instead, and you have past performances and raw data that can be factored into making an educated decision.

The typical gambler doesn’t have time — or take the time — to examine the plethora of prop plays available. Lucky for you, this is what I do 365 days a year. Here's a baker's dozen of Super Bowl prop plays — selections I've researched and actually have something to do with on-the-field action - with odds and totals supplied by www.Sports.com.

  • Willie Parker's total rushing yards: Over 83.5 (-115)
  • Parker's total carries: Over 20.5 (-145)
  • Ben Roethlisberger's total passing yards: Over 235.5 (-120)
  • Roethlisberger's total completions: Over 17.5 (-125)
  • Roethlisberger's total rushing yards on First Attempt: Over 1.5 (+110)
  • Troy Polamalu's total tackles (solo & assisted): Over 4.5 (-120)
  • Kurt Warner's total passing yards: Over 259.5 (-115)
  • Larry Fitzgerald's total receptions: Over 6.5 (-120)
  • Will either team score 3 straight times without the other team scoring: No (+130)
  • Most pass attempts — Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger: Warner -8 1/2 (-115)
  • Most passing yards — Warner vs. Roethlisberger: Warner -21.5 (-115)
  • Most rushing yards — Parker vs. Edgerrin James: Parker -38 1/2 (-115)
  • James total rushing yards: Under 42.5 (-130)

Now keep in mind that these prop plays will vary from casino to casino, as will their odds and over/under totals, so shopping around for the best numbers is vital; that's how pros beat the linemakers.

For example, the over/under on the total rushing yards figure assigned to Edgerrin James ranges from 42.5 to 49.5 yards. If you agree with me that Pittsburgh's defense, ranked second in the league against the run with a regular season average yield of 80.2 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, will stop the E-Train, then you obviously want the higher (49.5) number when you bet the under. But if you think James' late-season resurgence will continue, you want to play the over wherever you can get the lower 42.5 figure.

Shop till you drop for prop plays, but remember what I said: they're designed for sportsbooks to make money. The best way for you to make money is to wager on whether the Steelers or Cardinals cover the spread. Personally, I'll play three or four prop plays — all small wagers — and that's it. Combined they won't equal my wager on the game as I go for my seventh straight Super Bowl winner, looking to improve to 13-2-2 over the past 17 years on Super Sunday.

Al DeMarco, General Manager of WhoWillCover.com and the featured handicapping analyst on SportsNet New York’s Daily News Live, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies — plus watch his Free Video Report for his Super Bowl Over/Under winner at WhoWillCover.com.


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