OPINION

By Gerry Fraley

updated 8:05 p.m. ET Jan. 19, 2009

Prince Fielder has spent nearly one year waiting for this.

Milwaukee, his employer, has spent nearly one year dreading it.

It is show-your-hand day, when clubs and arbitration-eligible players exchange figures on proposed one-year, non-guaranteed contracts. With that, the countdown begins on the chilly relationship between Fielder and the Brewers.

A trade is not imminent and likely would not happen this season unless the Brewers collapse. Fielder's debut in arbitration reminds the Brewers that they are drawing closer to that day.

For the first time, Fielder holds the hammer of being able to take the club to arbitration. Milwaukee previously had the leverage and used it. The Brewers renewed Fielder's contract before last season at a salary of $670,000.

A year earlier, Fielder had at age 23 become the youngest player in history to hit 50 homers. He expected more from the Brewers and was irritated when the club did not give him special treatment.

"I'm not happy at all," Fielder said at the time. "But my time is going to come, and it's coming quick, too.''

Fielder, in the camp of no-discounts agent Scott Boras, will ask for a big number. Do not be surprised if Fielder files for a raise of more than 900 percent to about $8 million.

"We're as interested as anybody to see what the number is,'' Milwaukee assistant general manager Gord Ash said.

Fielder and Boras are expected to use Philadelphia's Ryan Howard as a comparable for determining a salary.

Howard was arbitration-eligible for the first time after the 2007 season, and he beat the Phillies. The arbitrator sided with Howard's request for a $10 million salary, $3 million more than the Phillies offered.

Going into the hearing, Howard had a National League Most Valuable Player award on his resume. Howard also had a career average of .291 with 129 homers and 353 RBIs to go with a .397 on-base percentage and .610 slugging percentage.

Fielder is a cut below that.

His career numbers are .278 with 114 homers and 312 RBIs with a .370 on-base percentage and a .533 slugging percentage.

The difference is more pronounced when current career numbers are considered. In 282 more at-bats than Fielder, Howard has 63 more homers and 187 more RBIs along with a 63-point advantage in OPS: .970-.903.

Fielder has been good but not quite up to Howard's level.

Brewers general manager Doug Melvin has not had an arbitration case since coming on the scene late in the 2002 season. The Brewers would like to settle, Ash said, but are preparing to go to a hearing if necessary.

Their argument against Fielder would be interesting and potentially incendiary.

Would the Brewers mention Fielder's deteriorating defense?

Fielder and Howard each have 31 errors during the last two seasons. That is the highest total by a major-league first baseman since Kevin Young had 40 errors with Pittsburgh in 1999-2000.

(The legendary Dick "Dr. Strangeglove'' Stuart had 53 errors at first base with Boston in 1963-64.)

Would the Brewers bring up Fielder's increasing weight and decreasing power?

Fielder adopted a vegetarian diet last season, but he seemed to expand while his power shrunk. Fielder went from 50 homers, 119 RBIs and a .618 slugging percentage in 2007 to 34 homers, 102 RBIs and a .507 slugging percentage last season.

Fielder is a sensitive slugger, especially when his weight is an issue. He can sit in on the hearing as the Brewers make their case. If Fielder was angry when the club exercised its right of renewal last season, what would he be like after listening to a club-built case against him?

Melvin has the payroll flexibility to keep Fielder this season, even if he wins a big award. The Brewers want to build on last season's success. Trading Fielder now or during the season would send a bad message to the growing fan base.

A year from now, the situation will be different.

Fielder and Boras have rejected one proposal from the Brewers on a multi-year contract and seem set on going into free agency after the 2011 season. The Brewers would be better served moving Fielder then rather than letting him get closer to the walk-away season. Milwaukee is on the clock.

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