Tony DeMarco

To understand the Boston Red Sox’s off-season strategy, you have to be able to read MRI and X-ray results.

They have The Oracle — Bill James — on their payroll, and recently added another statistical guru in Tom Tippett. But what they really need to do is bring Drs. James Andrews and Frank Jobe on board.

Ah, but we kid. Theo Epstein and Co., with their recent track record for innovation, payroll efficiency and success firmly intact, are going all-in on a low-risk, potentially high-return play.

It’s nothing new — signing a player coming off an injury or surgery to a one-year, low-guarantee contract, and hoping for the best. But it is a novel concept to try it five times in the same off-season, including four times in the last week:

• John Smoltz, the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer, signed away from the Atlanta Braves for one year and $5.5 million guaranteed, even though he is seven months removed from shoulder surgery and won’t be on the active roster to start the season.

How healthy is Smoltz, and how much can he contribute in 2009? Good questions. But everything in his track record says don’t bet against him. And the Sox are taking the approach that they want Smoltz healthy down the stretch, and will proceed as cautiously as possible with that in mind.

They already have Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka in place at the top of the rotation. Tim Wakefield is around for one more season, and Clay Buchholz will get another chance to establish himself.

But any amount of Smoltz — especially down the stretch and in the postseason — can only help the rotation, as well as keep Justin Masterson anchored in a setup role.

• Takashi Saito, former Dodgers closer, signed a one-year, $1.5-million guaranteed deal with up to $6 million more in incentives, plus an option for 2010.

Saito saved 18 games with a 2.45 ERA in 45 games last season in LA, but missed two months in the second half due to a sprained ligament in his right elbow, and pitched only once in the postseason. And he’ll turn 39 on Valentine’s Day.

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The Dodgers, who know his health status better than anyone, could have offered him salary arbitration, but chose not to. He has an invitation to pitch for Japan in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, but whether he does is uncertain at this point.

But he does have 88 saves, a 1.95 ERA and 245 strikeouts in 189.2 big-league innings, and is expected to fit somewhere in front of Jonathan Papelbon in a deepened bullpen.

• Brad Penny — another ex-Dodger — agreed to a one-year, $5-million guaranteed deal after a disastrous 6-9-6.27 season that included no starts after Aug. 13 due to shoulder tendinitis.

Penny, 31, never has been much of a conditioning nut, but is only a year removed from back-to-back seasons in which he went a combined 32-13 with a 3.64 ERA for the Dodgers.

If this works, the Sox have themselves a No. 4 starter who has pitched higher in several rotations. There has been no evidence of structural damage, and Penny is young enough that a big bounce-back year could land him a huge, long-term deal.

But again, the Dodgers had no hesitancy about moving in a different direction, which makes you wonder, given the scarcity of pitching out there.

• Rocco Baldelli, the Rhode Island kid and former Rays phenom, signed a one-year, $500,000-guaranteed deal to become another option along with Mark Kotsay behind the outfield-DH rotation of Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz.

A mysterious condition has limited him to 237 at-bats over the last two seasons, so even at 27, Baldelli can’t command much in guaranteed money.

But the condition now is believed to be treatable by medication, and that should increase the chances of him being a productive part-time player, particularly against left-handed pitching.

• And Josh Bard, currently the starting catcher, signed a one-year, $1.7-million non-guaranteed deal that could reach $2.5 million with incentives.

Bard played only 57 games last season with the Padres, and hit only .202 with one homer and 16 RBI in 187 at-bats around two long stays on the disabled list.

And then there is the lingering doubt about his ability to handle Wakefield’s knuckleball, which led to Bard’s release by the Sox after disastrous results early in the 2006 season.

Whether it’s Jason Varitek or another catcher who is added to the Sox’s roster, you have to assume Bard will be the backup, or at most part of a platoon situation.

But all of that potential production from a handful of veterans — and for only about the cost of one season of Mark Teixeira. And it’s not as if the Red Sox needed any major retooling — after all, they did win 95 regular-season games and reach Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.

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Teixeira would have been a nice (but costly) addition to a lineup that needs one more middle-of-the-order bat — and that need would become critical if Ortiz, Lowell or Drew doesn’t stay healthy.

But the Red Sox didn’t have to try to emulate the Yankees, either.

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