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Even when injured, Tiger's still the one to beat

Woods remains atop the world rankings, but for how long is up for debate

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ASK THE GOLF EXPERT
By Randall Mell
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 12:19 a.m. ET Jan. 14, 2009

Randall Mell
Tiger Woods has never been so vulnerable with a lead.

Never have so many players mounted such fearless charges at him.

Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington, Vijay Singh, Anthony Kim, Camilo Villegas and Geoff Ogilvy are among those challenging his place atop the game with impunity as the new PGA Tour season begins.

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Sure, Woods may not be able to play yet as he continues to mend from reconstructive knee surgery, but he's in the game in spirit. In fact, he's in danger of being dealt his first loss before he's even able to come back. As the world's No. 1 player, Woods faces the prospect of losing his top ranking before he returns.

Woods, 33, has been a pro for 643 weeks (through Jan. 18), and he has been No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking for 530 of those weeks, longer than any other player in the 22-year history of the rankings.

He has ruled that top spot for the last 188 consecutive weeks, since wrestling the ranking away from Singh on June 12, 2005.

That Woods should slip from his lofty perch wouldn't be a remarkable development given how long he has been out with injury.

What's remarkable is that he's still No. 1 seven months since last teeing it up.

His once giant lead, though, is shrinking.

When Woods limped away from Torrey Pines after defeating Rocco Mediate in a playoff at the U.S. Open in June, he was atop the world rankings with 21.542 average points. That was 11.328 points more than then No. 2 Phil Mickelson's average.

Today, Woods is 3.48 points ahead of No. 2 Garcia's average.

What does that mean?

For Woods, it's probably much ado about nothing.

Then again, Woods is so competitive he may despise the notion of anyone sitting upon his throne, even in these circumstances.

With a healthy left knee, Woods will return with the frightening possibility he could be better than ever. In that case, it wouldn't take him long to seize back the top spot and run up another giant lead in the world rankings.

The opportunity to be No. 1 should meaning something to all Woods' foes, though, even if it comes with an asterisk.

It wasn't that long ago that Paul Azinger wondered aloud how depressing it must be for players today who are resigned to the fact that there's no chance they'll ever know what it's like to be the No. 1 player in the world.

For players in their prime, a door is cracking open that may not open again before their peak years expire. It may be their one and only chance to someday say they held the No. 1 world ranking, even if it comes with Woods ailing off stage.

Since the Official World Golf Ranking made its debut on April 6, 1986, only 12 players have ascended to No. 1. Bernhard Langer (3 weeks) started it. Seve Ballesteros (61), Greg Norman (331), Nick Faldo (97), Ian Woosnam (50), Fred Couples (16), Nick Price (44), Tom Lehman (1), Ernie Els (9), David Duval (15) and Singh (32) all enjoyed ruling atop the rankings.

With Woods rebuilding his knee, there's another bleaker possibility in all of this almost too disturbing to ponder.

What if Woods' left knee only gets worse? What if he's dealing with a degenerative condition that requires yet another surgery and more time away? It's a disconcerting thought for anyone who cares about Woods and the magic he brings to the game.

But if Woods isn't right upon his return, a whole new era may be about to unfold.

So who's most equipped to step up to No. 1 if the unthinkable happens?

At No. 2, with three worldwide titles last year, Garcia is at the front of the line with No. 3 Harrington and his three major championships in the last six tries right behind him. Mickelson failed to take advantage of Woods' absence in the second half of last season and has slipped to No. 4 with the recently injured Singh No. 5.

Ogilvy jumped five spots to No. 6 winning the season-opening Mercedes-Benz Championship.

Young upstarts Villegas (No. 8) and Kim (No. 9) have momentum with two breakthrough victories last season.

There's no definitive answer to exactly what will be required to become No. 1 while Woods is out.

It's complicated given the complex configuration of the Official World Golf Ranking, and the uncertainty of the date of Woods' return, but we know Woods' strongest challengers will make substantial gains on him every week he misses beyond his customary season debut at the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines outside San Diego.

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The world rankings are based on a two-year cycle. Woods loses any points he won beyond that in the newest ranking.

Nobody's quite sure when Woods will be ready to return, but it will be a stunner if he's ready to tee it up at the Buick on Feb. 5-8. If he's not back, he'll lose the points he claimed winning the Buick in 2007. If he's not back before March 1, he'll also lose points he claimed in '07 when he tied for third at Dubai and tied for ninth at the Accenture Match Play Championship.

Official World Golf Ranking officials are on record estimating Woods will drop down to 8.22 average points if he doesn't return until The Masters and loses the points he won at the CA Championship at Doral in '07. Garcia's sitting at 7.88 points this week.

A victory by any of these top challengers early this season heightens the drama and tightens the race.

In the end, though, you can be assured it won't be a matter of what Garcia and Co. do. It will be all about Woods and what he is able to do. Whether he's No. 1 or not when he returns doesn't really matter, either. He's the best player on the planet until his fellow tour pros show they can regularly beat him head to head.


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