ANALYSIS

By Matt Hayes

updated 1:40 p.m. ET Jan. 8, 2009

Matt Hayes

Are you ready for the BCS National Championship Game? All the preparation and anticipation brings us to Thursday night in Miami, where the No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 1 Florida Gators meet at 8 p.m. ET.

SN's game-time coverage will include in-game updates and post-game analysis of the championship showdown.

Sporting News college football experts Dave Curtis and Matt Hayes take a final in-depth look at the Sooners and Gators. Below, Hayes offers 10 reasons Florida will win. As a counterpoint, Curtis offers 10 reasons Oklahoma will win.

Here is Hayes's take:

1. The Tebow factor
If you have to start somewhere, start at the top. Tim Tebow, Florida's junior quarterback, has played flawlessly since the Gators' loss to Ole Miss in September. It's more than just running and throwing and directing the offense: Florida feeds of Tebow's inner strength and will to win. Call it corny and contrived, but it's as real as anything about this team.

2. Dictating tempo
Forget what you thought you knew about the spread option offense. It's not all quick score and big plays; it's imposing your will on your opponent by dictating tempo. Lost in the hoopla of the Florida offense: The system is similar to many of the old-school option offenses of the 1970s and 1980s, but it begins with the quarterback in the shotgun -- and uses two quick tailbacks instead of one. There is too much balance and too many options -- speedy options -- for Oklahoma to contain in the run and pass games.

3. Game-changers on special teams
It starts with kick/punt returner Brandon James, who gives the team what amounts to a free play on offense with any return. The fact that OU covers poorly on kick returns (the Sooners allowed four touchdowns this fall) compounds the problems. But the more significant edge is Florida's ability to block kicks (eight this season: five punts, two field goals, one conversion), and use field position in the punt game. Only six of 13 opponents have started a drive in Florida territory, and the Gators are giving up 4.8 yards per punt return. Those numbers aren't sexy for television, but they win games.

4. The setup on defense
The Sooners' no-huddle system sets up so quickly, many teams aren't prepared for the quick plays -- much less the talent that executes the plays. There are times when defenses are still looking to the sidelines for play calls. To combat this, Florida used two scout teams in bowl preparations and rotated them on and off the field every other play -- as soon as the play ended -- to simulate the speed of the setup. The scout teams can't simulate OU's talent, but that's not what scout teams are about. This move by coach Urban Meyer and his staff was as important as any in bowl preparation.

5. Strength on the corner
Florida rotates everywhere on defense with the exception of three spots: middle linebacker and both cornerbacks. Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins, both underclassmen, developed into the SEC's best cornerback combination this fall with their aggressive style and confident play. Haden said he has noticed from film study that teams don't try to get physical with Oklahoma receivers. That will change tonight. Florida plays a mixture of coverages, but Jenkins and Haden routinely play near the line of scrimmage and challenge receivers to win individual battles.

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6. A healthy Harvin
This is a different team when dynamic wideout/tailback Percy Harvin is healthy. He plays faster than anyone on the field, and gives the Gators a physical threat in the backfield in run packages. In pass situations, he allows Florida to have deep speed on either side of the formation (including wideout Louis Murphy) to force safeties to choose in coverage. That scenario usually opens the middle for a slot receiver or tight end to find speed mismatches in the secondary.

7. Getting pressure
Florida players and coaches have been saying all week that they must get pressure with the front four to have success against OU's four- and five-wide sets. While that's true, defensive coordinator Charlie Strong is one of the best in the game at designing blitz-specific schemes and coverages to confuse quarterbacks. Whether it's overloading off the edge or a variety of zone blitzes, the Gators will get after OU quarterback Sam Bradford.

8. Linebackers in coverage
OU tight end Jermaine Gresham is 6-6, 260 pounds and has been a matchup nightmare for teams. He'll get catches against Florida, but he won't run away from speedy linebackers Brandon Spikes and Brandon Hicks -- two 230-pound-plus guys who can run and disrupt Gresham's comfortable, effective seam patterns.

9. The other tight end
Tight end Aaron Hernandez is Florida's most underrated player -- and Tebow's most indispensable target. Third and short? Find Hernandez on the field; that's where Tebow is headed. Big target, sure hands, dangerous runner after the catch. The Gators also like to use Hernandez on shuttle passes out of the shotgun to slow down defensive pursuit.

10. The motivator
Two years ago during Florida's previous national title run, Meyer had a 20-foot wall built and had every quote or negative story written or said about the Gators pinned to it. This time around, he says he's still looking for the motivation. Don't believe it. He's already telling his defense that Oklahoma says it will hang 60 on Florida like it has the five teams before it, and telling his offense that Oklahoma thinks it has seen better players in the Big 12. Mind games may be overrated, but done correctly, it keeps teams focused on a common goal throughout four quarters -- and not just the first few minutes.

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