OPINION

By Ryan Fagan

updated 8:40 p.m. ET Jan. 6, 2009

Derek Lowe didn't look much like a $36 million pitcher when he took the mound against the Cardinals in early August. He didn't even look like a 36-cent pitcher, giving up 13 hits, getting tagged for eight runs and failing to make it out of the fourth inning.

His postgame comments reeked of veteran indifference — in a good way. He basically shrugged and said sometimes that just happens. Then he did what Derek Lowe has done for the long time; he took the mound for his next turn. And spent the rest of the season proving there were no ill effects from that one hiccup of an outing.

From that point on, Lowe was 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in his final 10 starts of the regular season. And then he posted a solid 3.31 ERA in three postseason starts. His stock rose with every pitch, and when the Philadelphia Phillies eliminated his Los Angeles Dodgers from the NLCS, Lowe was ready to cash in with a mega free-agent deal.

Sure, he's 35, but he's made at least 32 starts in seven consecutive seasons. He wasn't the superstar that CC Sabathia was, but he might have been the surest bet. "He's proven a durable guy over the year," one N.L. scout said. "Everybody needs a guy of his caliber. I don't think there's a staff that couldn't be helped by a guy like that."

There was talk that Lowe — and his uberagent, Scott Boras — were looking for a deal in the five-year, $90 million range. That was in November. The market has shifted, and those numbers aren't happening. The New York Mets seem to be the only big-money team interested in paying what it would take to acquire Lowe. And, in their eyes, Lowe looks like a $36 million pitcher (for the next three years). That's not what the Lowe camp wants, but soon it, too, might feel he looks like a $36 million pitcher.

What about the other two top-notch starters left on the market?

Oliver Perez. This talented lefthander who was a bit of an enigma actually matured into an excellent pitcher under the New York spotlight. Sure, there were a few rough patches, but he went 25-17 the past two seasons for the Mets, and at 27 is a very young free agent. Still, in this economy, he probably isn't going to land anything more than, at most, a three-year deal.

"He can be very good," the scout said. "It's just that he's a little inconsistent from outing to outing and from inning to inning. He's a quality lefthanded starter. His delivery, where he flies open, is inconsistent and hurts him in terms of keeping his delivery together and keeping his mechanics together. Sometimes he pitches up in the zone and struggles throwing quality strikes. That's the main thing. He's very good, though."

Ben Sheets. Sabathia was the star in Milwaukee, but the loss of Sheets, a lifelong Brewer, could be just as damaging. He made 31 starts this season — his most since 2004 — before the ol' injury bug acted up again in the season's waning days.

"He has that quality power stuff, that power breaking ball, but health is the concern for him," the scout said. "That's a problem, especially with the amount of money he's looking for."

If he doesn't get the multiyear deal he's looking for, he could sign a one-year deal — maybe even with Milwaukee — and use 2009 to again try to prove he can stay healthy. After all, he's still only 30.

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