Here's what to expect in NHL's second half
Ovechkin to run away with another goals title; Penguins might fire Therrien
John Bazemore / ASSOCIATED PRESSWashington's Alexander Ovechkin likely won't match last season's total of 65 goals, but he should win his second straight Rocket Richard Trophy, writes NHL Expert Kevin Dupont.
ASK THE NHL EXPERT
By Kevin Dupont
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 7:05 p.m. ET Jan. 7, 2009
 | Kevin Dupont |
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Halfway through the 2008-'09 NHL season, it's the perfect time to look at what the final three-months of the regular season might bring. And for the record, yes, I'm holding on to my pick as the Red Wings to repeat as Cup champions.
The sons of Gordie Howe turn it up when it's necessary, almost on demand, which can be a formula for disaster for most clubs. But the Wings are good enough to shift from neutral to overdrive, based on the talent level of their opponent. Which is another way of saying that they can win despite some suspect goaltending from their Chris Osgood-Ty Conklin tandem.
Otherwise, keep your eyes fixed on:
- The Wild are expected to get Marian Gaborik back from hip surgery in the days immediately following the March 4 trade deadline. None of the other clubs will be able to boast that kind of ''deadline'' acquisition. Question is, will ''Gabby'' remain healthy long enough to provide the Wild with a meaningful push over the final 3-4 weeks and then the playoffs? Gaborik's package of speed and skill is nearly impossible to match, and it looks like a sure bet now that he will sign elsewhere as as free agent in July. Not great ''asset management'' by the Wild, but Gaborik's many physical breakdowns minimized his trade value.
- The Penguins will have to do something, and canning coach Michel Therrien could be that something. Talk all you want about Sergei Gonchar not being at the point for power-play duty, but a club with such unique talents as Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby should not struggle to play .500 hockey.
- Go ahead and give Bruins bench boss Claude Julien the Jack Adams Award as best coach right now. The Bruins, without a Cup since 1972, are legit Cup contenders for the first time since the early '90s and Julien's disciplined system and sales job have been the key ingredients. Runners-up: Todd McLellan in San Jose and Joel Quenneville in Chicago.
- Claude Lemieux, finally signed to a two-way contract by San Jose around the first of the year, will provide the Sharks with some meaningful nastiness and knowledge down the stretch. The Sharks have been a favorite pick to win the Cup by many of the media cognoscenti since the end of the lockout, but they have fizzled more than sizzled in the playoffs. Lemieux, 43, might be a stride or two behind the play, but his combination of smarts and surliness will be big pluses down the stretch. There is a difference between being good enough to win and knowing how to win.
- The NHL and NBC soon will commit to another Winter Classic game for Jan. 1, 2010, and after the good vibes (and decent TV ratings) that came out of Wrigley Field, it will be Fenway Park in Boston that gets most of the talk for the next one. Can't go wrong with the Back Bay's Monster providing the backdrop to the wintry tableau. However, with NHL'ers set to play in the 2010 Olympics at Vancouver, putting the Winter Classic in that town Jan. 1, 2010 would be the perfect TV ''teaser'' for the Games. Fenway would be best for Jan. 1, 2012, which also happens to be the year the ol' ballyard celebrates its 100th birthday.
- Philly's Jeff Carter and Washington's Alexander Ovechkin were the top goal scorers in the first half, but look for AO to run away in the second half with his second straight Rocket Richard Trophy as the league's No. 1 goal scorer. Ovechkin was way behind his usual scoring pace for the first six weeks of the season, but he remains the single most dynamic and exciting player in the game. He likely won't reach last season's total of 65 goals, but there are 50-plus NHL goalies who wouldn't take that bet.
- The Blackhawks enjoyed a very successful first half, good enough to get them back into the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But it will be a much more difficult second half, full of a lot of fan expectation and, more important, the rest of the league taking them much more seriously. Team leaders Jonthan Toews and Patrick Kane are still very young, which makes the Hawks look somewhat like the late-1970s Islanders, just before the likes of Bryan Trottier and Mike Bossy became the anchors of four Cup teams. Perhaps the Hawks can find a Butch Goring type somewhere?
- The Senators, in a dangerous and stupefying funk the first half, will have to do something big. A Montreal daily paper, Le Journal de Montreal, reported Jan. 7 that club owner Eugene Melnyk has decided to fire GM Bryan Murray and coach Craig Hartsburg. The Journal report also said that Bob Nicholson, longtime head of Hockey Canada, would assume GM duties and Pat Quinn, canned 2 1/2 years ago as the Leafs bench boss, would take over the Senators bench. Otherwise, the most daring play on the personnel side would be to trade underperforming Jason Spezza, but his contract (four more years at $8 million per) makes him a near-impossible move. His ''compete'' level also has become suspect. It's a Zach Parise type that the Sens would need in return, but fat chance that the Devils would make that swap. The Kings could accommodate Spezza's salary, but the target there for Ottawa would be Dustin Brown or Anze Kopitar, the chances of that being: 1. Slim and 2. None. Ottawa's best addition would be to bring Jay Bouwmeester to the backline in hopes that he would trigger the same kind of push from behind that Larry Murphy once provided the Red Wings.
- The Leafs, now with Brian Burke in charge of the front office, will clear more bodies off the roster leading up to the March 4 trade deadline. Not only is the Toronto talent level thin, and the cupboard near empty of prospects, but draft picks are few. Burke has five more years on his deal, and unless there is a fundamental shift in the CBA (i.e. the abolishment of the salary cap), he'll need at least three years to get the Leafs going in the right direction.
- The Players Association, just before All-Star weekend in January (24-25), will inform the league that it will not exercise its right to break the CBA after this season, which will insure labor harmony for at least two more seasons. The current document isn't perfect, for either side, but forcing a third lockout would be profoundly dumb, especially amid the world's ongoing economic crisis.
- Kris Versteeg (Chicago), Steve Mason (Columbus) and Drew Doughty (Los Angeles) will make for a very exciting rookie of the year race down the stretch. But don't discount the likes of Blake Wheeler in Boston or Bobby Ryan in Anaheim.
- Mats Sundin will not be the answer to all of Vancouver's prayers, but if he can stay healthy, the big Swedish center, who turns 38 on Feb. 13, will provide leadership and presence to a lineup desperate for both. This could prove to the greatest test of Sundin's career. He sat out the first half by choice and now must enter his aged body into a race that already has everyone hitting on all cylinders. It could be enough to turn his blue eyes brown.
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