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A’s hope to rise in 2009

Oakland banking on young arms and an improved offense

Image: Eric Chavez
The A's need for Eric Chavez to bounce back from shoulder surgery and have a healthy and productive 2009 season, writes Bert Blyleven of NBCSports.com.
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OPINION
By Bert Blyleven
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 9:03 p.m. ET Dec. 19, 2008

MLB 9-11-06: Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Bert Blyleven
The A’s devoted last season to rebuilding but the coming season should be a different story. The goal is to improve upon their 75 wins of 2008. The first hint of that came in November when general manager Billy Beane obtained a power bat in Matt Holliday by swinging a deal with the Rockies.

Sure, Holliday is eligible for free agency at the end of the season, so he’s a hired gun brought in to beef up a weak offense. But the move and some more moves Beane might make, also buy time for a restocked farm system to bear fruit. There’s even another positive in bringing Holliday aboard since if he’s dealt at the trade deadline the return could add valuable pieces to the A’s roster and if he leaves as a free agent the two first-round picks Oakland would get could be keys to future success.  

Holliday’s addition is just one sign Beane has got his eye on the future and bringing Oakland back to being a perennial contender in the AL West. Through his trades of veterans over the last year, Beane has the dollars he needs to shop the free-agent market. He had plenty of interest in Rafael Furcal and was obviously disappointed when Furcal visited Oakland only to soon after turn down a reported four-year, $40 million offer from Beane.

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And though Beane had a quiet winter meetings, he may have set the groundwork for deals to come before the start of next season. And his shopping the free- agent market might include interest in Jason Giambi and Randy Johnson.  

The A’s set themselves back when since last winter they lost some high quality pitchers in Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Huston Street and Greg Smith. But Beane needed to address a depleted farm system and plenty of prospects were added through the departures of veterans.

But there’s just been too much turnover of arms to foresee the A’s pitching consistently well in 2009. The only two returning pitchers who started more than 11 games last season are Justin Duchscherer and Dana Eveland. The staff needs stability and to get that stability Oakland can’t continue to be a kind of launching pad where young pitchers spend a few seasons coming into their own only to be traded away or sign elsewhere as free agents. So Beane would be wise to bring in a couple of veteran pitchers in case some of the younger arms struggle.

Justin Duchscherer will be the next test case when it comes to Oakland holding on to a promising young arm. He’s the No. 1 starter in the rotation and is coming off a 10-8 season with a 2.54 ERA. The A's are likely to try to sign him soon and avoid arbitration. But keeping him long range is the key question that looms.

By adding Holliday to their lineup the A’s are banking on bettering an offense that in 2008 finished last in the AL with 646 runs and had a batting average of .241.

If they score more runs they figure that will take some pressure off their young arms in the rotation. The starters won’t be thinking they have little or no margin for error. They won’t be thinking they have to throw a shutout every time out.

But they’ll be pressure on the offense with such a young staff because if those arms give up three or four runs early, the A’s will wind up turning to their bats to dig out of holes. And while Holliday adds a big stick, in Colorado he was protected pretty nicely in the lineup. Is he going to be protected that well in Oakland? And what will be the impact on Holliday’s production of him going from hitter-friendly Coors Field to the pitcher-friendly Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum?

What would help boost the offense is a return to health of Eric Chavez, who played only 23 games in 2008 and is recovering from a shoulder operation – his latest. Chavez has had four surgeries (three on his shoulders and one on his back) since September of 2007.

The A’s need to settle on a closer after including Street in the deal for Holliday. What I find curious is manager Bob Geren’s current plan to alternate Brad Ziegler and Joey Devine in the role. Both were rookies last season and both were very impressive. When Ziegler took over the closer's role from Street in August he set a major league record with 39 scoreless innings to start his career. And Devine’s 0.59 ERA was the lowest single-season ERA in major league history for a pitcher with a minimum of 40 innings.

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Geren says he feels comfortable with both of them and likes the flexibility of having both available depending on which hitters the opposition is sending up in the eighth and ninth innings. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if coming out of spring training the job will have been given to one or the other. Having dual closers is not done too often and the teams that are the most successful go with one guy they can always look to when needing to finish out games.

There’s a long way to go in the offseason and knowing Beane the A’s will be doing some business over the winter. But they’ll also head into the new season with a bunch of questions the most notable ones being what their young pitching will give them, how Holliday will adjust to changing leagues and will Chavez be healthy enough to contribute offensively like he did a few years back.    

If the A’s can play .500 baseball in 2009, that would be a real nice stepping stone on the road back to contention in the division. But setting that as a goal and reaching it are two whole different things.

Bert Blyleven writes regularly for NBCSports.com, and is a former two-time All-Star who won 287 games during his 22 seasons in the major leagues.

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