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Bowl Breakdowns: Analyzing BCS title game

Gators should cap bowl season with victory over Sooners

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PREDICTIONS 101
updated 3:19 a.m. ET Dec. 23, 2008

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

No. 1 Florida (12-1)
                vs.
No. 2 Oklahoma (12-1)

Date: Jan. 8

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Time: 8 p.m. ET

Location: Miami

Television: FOX

Payout: $17 million

Last result: LSU 38, Ohio State 24

Coaches:

Urban Meyer (Florida); Bob Stoops (Oklahoma)

Bowl history/last appearance: Florida 16-19 (lost 41-35 to Michigan in '08 Capital One; Oklahoma 24-16-1 (lost 48-28 to West Virginia in '08 Fiesta)

Series: First meeting

What Florida has to do to win: Get receiver Percy Harvin and running back Chris Rainey healthy. It is all hands on deck for this one because the Sooners can score and score. Tim Tebow is showing his value more and more with the passing game, not just as a bruising runner, and he will have to spread the ball around and make Oklahoma cover the field. He is the best player in college football, and should be one of the top three players taken in the NFL draft if he comes out.

The Gators are ranked No. 9 on defense and they will be playing a team that has not scored less than 60 points in five consecutive games. Florida must play zero coverage, go man-to-man across the board like this is flag football. The Gators also have to find one guy who can just get after the Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, one-on-one. Line him up all over the field and do not let Bradford get smooth in the passing game. Florida has to defend Oklahoma’s run game and DeMarco Murray with four guys up front because the others have to stop the downfield throws. 

What Oklahoma has to do to win: Figure out a new way to get ready for a bowl game because its recent history is sorry. The Sooners have lost four of their last five bowls, including games to West Virginia and Boise State where Oklahoma was favored. The Sooners defense just gets lit up in these games and Florida is as good as it gets offensively.

The key is making the Gators start their possessions from 75 yards away; on a short field, Florida cruises. Blitz Tebow; take some chances. The OU offense can make up for it. The Sooners have to clog the interior line and take away the north-south creases of the speedy Jeff Demps. OU is ranked in the 60s in total defense in the NCAA, so consider that miserable stat when making a prediction. It is not because the Sooners give up yards — it's because the second-team defense plays a lot.

The Gators do not turn the ball over, so Oklahoma has to handle the ball itself, make plays, and watch out for the jarring hits in the open field. Spread the ball around and then go deep and see if Major Wright, the hard-hitting Florida safety, can make plays in the pass game.

Who the NFL is watching: Florida linebacker Takeo Spikes and quarterback Tim Tebow, who may or may not declare for the draft; Oklahoma tight end Jermaine Gresham and guard Duke Robinson, as well as quarterback Sam Bradford, a redshirt sophomore, are also top prospects.

Opening point spread: LSU by 1.5 (71.5)

Prediction: Florida 41, Oklahoma 37

MVP: Florida QB Tim Tebow


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