Then, there are the Houston Astros. They finished third in the NL Central this past season, a half-game ahead of the Cardinals. But of the four NL Central teams that were in contention for a playoff spot on Sept. 1, the Astros appear to be in the most trouble.

General manager Ed Wade's acquisition of left-hander Randy Wolf this past July transformed the Astros. They won 10 of Wolf's 12 starts and were 39-19 from his debut appearance through the end of the regular season. They won 14 of 15 before the Hurricane Ike fiasco sent them into a free fall.

To keep the current club together would cost around $120 million. Team owner Drayton McLane has made the shortsighted decision to get the payroll to around $100 million. Never mind that the Astros ran up a $100 million payroll because they were forced to acquire expensive veterans after McLane cut corners in drafting and player development.

Four Astros — right-hander Roy Oswalt, first baseman Lance Berkman, outfielder Carlos Lee and shortstop Miguel Tejada — will combine to make $60 million in 2009.

Wade's initial plan was to trade third baseman Ty Wigginton and NL saves leader Jose Valverde, both of whom are a year away from free agency. Two weeks ago, rethinking his plan, Wade abruptly ended negotiations with Wolf and signed oft-injured left-hander Mike Hampton for $2 million. Wade might be able to keep Valverde, especially if he can deal Tejada, who is not worth his $13 million salary.

Instead of getting better, the Astros seem to be getting worse. Wade didn't have the minor league talent necessary to pull off a Jake Peavy deal, and if Hampton gets hurt again, the Astros could hit bottom.

As for the Reds and Pirates, both finally seem to have a plan: Both are emphasizing player development. They're probably not ready to contend in 2009, but they're not as far away as people think.

Come to think of it, that's true of the entire division.

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