OPINION

By Matt Hayes

updated 8:44 p.m. ET Nov. 28, 2008

Matt Hayes

I realize the vocal minority wants a national playoff, but we'll just have to settle with a boring weekend of five games dictating the national title race in our weekly "Ten Things to Watch" (shortened to five for the holiday weekend), ranked in order of most likely to produce an upset:

1. Oregon at Oregon State
Welcome, everyone, to the Iron Bowl (we'll get to that later) of the West Coast. This bitter, ugly rivalry got a little added juice when Oregon State freshman tailback (and my choice for Pac-10 Player of the Year) Jacquizz Rodgers hurt his shoulder last week and likely won't play.
That leaves the Beavers with the exact opposite of the 5-6, 170-pound Rodgers: 6-1, 236-pound freshman tailback Ryan McCants. While McCants played well last week at Arizona after Rodgers went out, this game — this situation — is drastically different.

First, there's a reason they call this the Civil War. It's brutal on the field.

Second, the Beavers can clinch their first Rose Bowl since 1965 with a win. And with a win, Oregon State can actually bolster USC's scant hopes at reaching the national title game. The loss that looked so bad in September could now become a road loss to a team that won the Pac-10.

No matter how McCants plays, the Beavers must get more from inconsistent quarterbacks Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao.

Upset odds: 2-1.

2. Florida at Florida State
If this game were in Gainesville or at a neutral site, Florida would win by 30.

The fact it's in Tallahassee will make this much closer than it should be. If Florida State's offense can A) protect the ball; B) sustain drives and run clock, C) score at the end of drives, this is a fourth-quarter game.

The Florida defense, oddly enough, is a bigger concern for FSU than the offense. This Gators defense forces turnovers and gives their talented offense short fields, and turns momentum.
FSU's offensive line hasn't faced a pass rush like this Florida defense and quarterback Christian Ponder has problems when he can't set his feet, square his shoulders and throw. His passes sail on him too often when he can't set, and he needs to use his athletic ability to break containment and keep plays going.

Upset odds: 7-1.

3. Auburn at Alabama
This Iron Bowl couldn't be more set for Alabama: at home, the better team, more to play for, more momentum.

Yet there's Auburn, winners of the last six in this disgustingly bitter rivalry. Quick aside: You can have your little tussle you call Michigan-Ohio State, I'll take Auburn-Alabama.

For all the problems Auburn has had offensively all season — and it has been brutally bad — the Tigers' defense still has a ton of speed and athletic ability. Auburn will stop the Tide running game early, and force quarterback John Parker Wilson to make plays to move the unit.
Odd stat of the week: Wilson at home (4 TD, 4 INT); Wilson on the road/neutral games (4 TD, 1 INT).

Auburn can't drive the length of the field with its limited offense, but quarterback Kodi Burns can do enough if the Tigers' defense gets turnovers and provides short fields.

Upset odds: 15-1.

4. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
While Oklahoma was busy dusting off Texas Tech last week, Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy was busy drawing up plays.

He's gonna need 'em.

The Sooners are playing better than anyone in the Big 12 — that, by the way, doesn't overshadow 45-35 — and have more to play for in the Bedlam series. But Oklahoma State can do what Tech couldn't: run the ball.

The Cowboys must grind away and control the clock with tailback Kendall Hunter, and force the Sooners to cover physical wideout Dez Bryant in play-action situations. The closer the game is, the more perfect OU has to be on offense in a tough environment.

Upset odds: 25-1.

5. Notre Dame at USC
It's not going to be pretty. The only question: Does USC have another bad game in it?

If so, then it's a 17-point win instead of four touchdowns-plus. The problem for the Trojans is the next two wins — Notre Dame and UCLA — won't do much to impress human and computer polls.

USC still needs a ton of help, beginning with a Florida loss at FSU and an Oklahoma loss at Oklahoma State. And hope the Gators beat Alabama in the SEC championship game.

Upset odds: 100-1.

Also on NBCSports.com Rosenthal: Steelers’ struggles could sink their playoff hopes Circling the Bases: Dodgers unlikely to land Halladay Inside the Irish: Clausen reportedly involved in fight Opinion: So far, Nowitzki is NBA’s MVP  |  Fan Ranker Twitter: Follow us @nbc_sports

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