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Padres have no choice but to deal Peavy

The organization's downfall in 2008 is leading to a major rebuilding process

Jake PeavyASSOCIATED PRESS
Padres pitcher Jake Peavy is one of the offseason's top targets by many teams as San Diego begins to rebuild.

Tony DeMarco
The list of negatives engulfing the San Diego Padres only begins with their dismal 99-loss season in 2008.

It was right to expect some drop-off in the wake of not being able to clinch a 2007 playoff spot with a win in any of their final three games.

But a crash from 89 wins and a dramatic wild-card play-in game to a 63-99 last-place finish? With injuries to key performers Chris Young, Khalil Greene, Tadahito Iguchi and Josh Bard adding to the pain along the way?

The Padres lost nine of 10 in mid-April to fall to 8-15, and it never really got much better after that. While their season unraveled, so did the ownership situation in light of the pending divorce of John and Becky Moores.

So if there is a more dysfunctional franchise at this stage of the offseason, we don’t know where to find it.

The ownership upheaval has forced a payroll slashing — from last year’s $73 million to estimates in the $40 million range. That soon will mean the departure of ace Jake Peavy — current holdup in trade talks notwithstanding.

And then there is the sad — insulting, really — end to Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman’s stay. Tony Gwynn never got treated this way, that’s for certain.

But it comes down to this simple and painful reality in San Diego: Given the Padres’ situation, it makes no fiscal sense for them to keep either Peavy or Hoffman.

Peavy will make $11 million in 2009 and is owed $63 million over the next four seasons. Why hang onto somebody — even a 27-year-old ace — who will take up 20 percent to 25 percent of the payroll on a rebuilding team that has many holes to fill?

So whether it’s the Dodgers, the Braves, the Cubs or a three-way deal with a mystery team — the Astros? — that needs Peavy and can send the Cubs a quality reliever, Peavy almost certainly will be an ex-Padre soon enough.

The Padres offered Hoffman only $4 million to stay — a big cut from the $7.5 million he made in 2008 — and just when it appeared as if Hoffman was going to accept the offer after initially requesting a meeting with John Moores, it was withdrawn.

There is some justification here in light of Hoffman’s reduced effectiveness. He clearly is near the end of the line. But this one could have been worked out and Hoffman kept around as an iconic figure for a team that surely needs one.

Instead, an often-brilliant 16-year stay has ended abruptly, as has arguably the coolest in-stadium moment in the game, Hoffman’s ninth-inning entrances to 'Hells Bells'.

And you can bet the Padres’ attendance, which slipped from 2.8 million in 2007 to 2.4 million in 2008, is in for another significant decline.

So within those strict limits, general manager Kevin Towers is left to rebuild around Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley.

The disappointing Greene, stuck in a rut offensively, also figures to be moved. A handful of teams are looking for an everyday shortstop, and one could figure a change of scene will benefit Greene.

Brian Giles’ $9 million option has been picked up, but San Diego could deal him if he waives his trade veto rights — if not now, then maybe by July 31.

The bullpen will have to be rebuilt on the cheap — a Towers’ specialty, with the help of Petco Park — as setup man Heath Bell is expected to take over the closer role. A middle infielder, a center or right fielder and a backup catcher are other needs.

And they absolutely must get a big-league-ready starting pitcher in return for Peavy, as only Chris Young and Cha-Seung Baek are penciled into the 2009 rotation.

Part of the package was agreed upon in discussions with the Braves — likely including young shortstop Yunel Escobar. But the Braves won’t include Tommy Hanson, who tore up the Arizona Fall League, and no other combination could be agreed upon before talks ended.

The Cubs’ re-signing of Ryan Dempster has turned them away from adding a starter, but they do need a quality veteran reliever. So a third team is being sought to round out the deal.

But Peavy’s list of where he’ll go is rather limited — at least for now — Braves, Astros, Cubs, both Los Angeles teams and the Yankees.

The Angels currently are looking into CC Sabathia, while Dodgers manager Joe Torre and Andy Pettitte have talked of a reunion. But sooner or later, the available starting pitching dominoes — Sabathia, Peavy, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Pettitte and Ben Sheets — are going to start falling into place, and Peavy will move on.


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