Johnny Benson

Only once in the five year history of the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship has Tony Stewart not been a part of the field that battles it out for the series title over the final 10 races of the season. That was in 2006 when a mid-summer slump cost Stewart a chance at defending his Cup crown.

But now with Stewart having left the only organization (Joe Gibbs Racing) he has driven for in the Cup Series to go out on his own next year as a driver/co-owner for Stewart-Haas Racing, his chance of making the 2009 Chase is not what it would have been with JGR. I’d say it’s 50-50 for Stewart to make the playoff.

Stewart, who made his Cup debut in 1999, won 33 races to go with his two championships while with JGR. He has no easy road ahead, especially since he’ll no longer have Greg Zipadelli as his crew chief. Zipadelli decided to stay with JGR and team with Joey Logano, an 18-year-old rookie who gets the seat in the No. 20 Home Depot-sponsored car in 2009. The parting of ways between Stewart and Zipadelli marks the end of NASCAR's longest-running current driver and crew chief combination.

Stewart’s new crew chief is former Hendrick Motorsports crew chief Darian Grubb, who won the Daytona 500 with Jimmie Johnson in 2006 (when Johnson’s crew chief Chad Knaus was suspended). In addition to giving Stewart a car he can win races with, Grubb will need to be prepared to deal with his driver’s fiery and sometimes explosive personality. Stewart hasn’t always been able to keep his emotions in check.

Stewart-Haas Racing was formerly Haas-CNC Racing, which received its engines and technical support from Hendrick Motorsports but had little to show for it. So there’s plenty of work to be done by Stewart and those he hires since Haas-CNC Racing is winless since debuting in the Cup series in 2002.

Stewart has stayed away from giving a timetable for how long it will take for the organization to improve its results but the first 10 races of 2009 should give a good indication of whether his new team is headed in the right direction. Remember that while they may run good, the key is will they be able to run good enough to make the 12-driver Chase field?

Stewart-Haas Racing will field a pair of Chevrolets in 2009 with Stewart driving one and his fellow Indiana native Ryan Newman driving the other. Newman’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 16 marked the end of his run with Penske Racing, for whom he drove for seven full seasons.

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With Penske Racing Newman won 13 races, including this year's Daytona 500, and finished in the top 10 in points four times. His best points finish for the only organization he has been with at the Cup level was sixth – something he achieved three times.

Newman made the Chase in the first two years it was run but has missed it the last three years. He finished the 2008 season 17th in points and with a new team next year he’s in the same boat as Stewart. His chance of making the playoff is equal to his chance of not making it.

Newman will have Tony Gibson as his crew chief. Most recently Gibson was crew chief for the No. 8 team of Dale Earnhardt Incorporated, which in 2009 will be merging its teams with those of Chip Ganassi Racing. Gibson brings solid Cup series experience to Stewart-Haas Racing. He has been a crew chief for Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Steve Park and Michael Waltrip. He’s also been a car chief for Jeff Gordon, Alan Kulwicki and Bill Elliott, all of whom have won Cup championships.

Stewart and Newman will be two of the more interesting drivers to watch next year, especially in regards to their pursuit of making the Chase. Here are some others whose playoff bids will be worth keeping an eye on:

Kasey Kahne: His only appearance in the Chase came in 2006 when he wound up eighth in points. He had a shot at making the playoff in 2008 as he went into the last race before the Chase within striking distance (48 points) of the 12th and final spot in the field. But at Richmond International Raceway he wasn’t a factor and Clint Bowyer held on to capture that 12th spot.

Kahne finished 2008 14th in points. He did have a pair of poles and a pair of wins while admitting that his team has a lot of work to do and has to get better. But 2009 could be just like 2008 for him as I see him again being just on the outside looking in when the Chase starts.

David Ragan: He accelerated his learning curve in 2008 and it paid off. He went into Richmond only 17 points shy of being in the playoff field. But Bowyer proved to have the stronger car over the last 150 laps at Richmond and that was enough to keep Ragan out of the Chase. It could be a different story for Ragan in 2009 as I believe he has a great opportunity to make the playoff.

Brian Vickers: He was 15th in the standings heading into Richmond, 190 points out of the final Chase spot. He needed a real good run but he didn’t get one. Instead, he struggled to cross the checkers 36th. Still, it’s a safe bet his best racing is ahead of him. Next year will be his sixth full season on the Cup circuit and I expect him to make a strong push at the playoff.

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Kurt Busch: He won the first Chase in 2004 and then made the playoff two more times (10th in 2005 and 7th in 2007) but in 2008 his chances at making a run at the playoff were dealt a big blow by his not finishing five races and he wound up 18th in points. Next year Busch will have to adjust to not having Ryan Newman as a teammate at Penske Racing and the impact of that along with some other factors has me feeling he’ll miss the Chase once again.

Juan Pablo Montoya: After finishing 20th in points during his inaugural Cup season in 2007 it went in reverse for Montoya in 2008 as he slipped five spots and completed the year 25th in the standings. He’s still on a very big learning curve when it comes to Cup racing and although he’s a great talent he seems frustrated over what’s going on and that won’t help his cause so I look for him to miss the playoff in 2009.

Martin Truex Jr: He made the Chase in 2007 in only his second full season of Cup racing. He missed it in 2008 but did finish 15th in points. His chances at making the playoff in 2009 will hinge on how quickly and how well things fall into place with the merger of Dale Earnhardt Incorporated and Chip Ganassi Racing.

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