Dan Pompei

The most muddled division in football must be the NFC North, where on some Sundays you can hardly tell your Packers from your Bears, and it’s easy to get your Minnesotas and your Chicagos mixed up.

Only the Lions stand out, and they wish they did not because it is their ineptitude that separates them.

The Packers, Bears and Vikings are in a clump in the standings. And they could remain that way until the final week of the season. But eventually some team has got to win the North.

Right?

Who will it be?

Let’s look at these key factors and analyze the combatants.

Strengths
The Packers are a really, really good passing team. Aaron Rodgers is better than most people anticipated. They have an outstanding playmaking receiver in Greg Jennings and more depth at the position than any team in football. And coach Mike McCarthy is one of the most aggressive and effective game planners and play callers in the game.

They also can defend the pass very well with arguably the best pair of cornerbacks in football—Charles Woodson and Al Harris.

They also have an outstanding return man in Will Blackmon. He’s arguably the best in the NFL this year.

As for the Vikings, when they put their mind to it they can run the ball as well as any team in the game with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Maybe the only team the Vikings offense couldn’t run the ball on would be the Vikings defense.

The Bears have a solid, balanced offense, a steady run defense and above average special teams. But they aren’t as excellent in any single area as either the Vikings or Packers are.

Weaknesses
The Vikings have the worst special teams coverage units in the NFL. They have allowed six special teams touchdowns, which ties a record for most in a season.

The Vikings passing game scares no one, though they have made some big plays. There are 24 quarterbacks with a better passer rating than Gus Frerotte.

The Packers have struggled against the run. They are ranked 27th in the NFL in run defense. Their pass rush also has been lackluster.

The Bears have not been able to rush the passer or defend the pass.

Schedule
The Bears and Packers are on easy street, while the Vikings have a tougher road to travel. The Bears’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .400. The Packers’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .410.

But the Vikings’ opponents have a combined winning percentage of .533, and included on their schedule are games against the Cardinals, Falcons and Giants.

The Bears are in the best position to determine their fate within the division because they are the only team with games remaining against the other top two contenders in the NFC North. The Vikings and Packers already have played each other twice.

Momentum
The Bears have lost their past two, including a game against the Packers last week. They also are playing their worst football of the year, so they have the least amount of momentum.

The Packers had lost two straight before beating the Bears, but they have shown some positive signs even in their losses. The Vikings lost their last game, but won their previous two, including one against the Packers.

X factors
If defensive tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, the Vikings won’t be the same team.

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Rodgers’ shoulder is believed to be bothering him, and he might even need surgery after the season. The shoulder could get worse as the season goes on, and his performance could be affected.

A number of the Bears’ most talented players — Devin Hester, Brian Urlacher, Tommie Harris and Adewale Ogunleye — have not produced up to their own standards. If those players can turn it on down the stretch, the Bears will be a significantly better team.

The NFC North probably will come down to who can stay healthy and who can get hot. The Packers and Bears are probably better positioned than the Vikings to finish strong.

So don’t be surprised if football’s tightest division is decided Dec. 22, when the Packers visit Soldier Field.