ASSOCIATED PRESSGoing after Randy Johnson is an easy decision for any big league team looking for pitching. If he's really willing to play for $8 million, he might be one of the bargains of this offseason.
The Cubs are interested. The Astros could be interested. He makes sense for the Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Angels and Rangers. And that's just a preliminary list.
This free-agent buying season is going to be played out on two distinctly different playing fields. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Derek Lowe, etc., are at the highest level.
They'll get huge money and won't be impacted by the economic crisis. But for dozens of other free agents, it could be a different marketplace. Fewer dollars, fewer years.
That's why Johnson is such an intriguing player to have on this market. Yes, he's 45 years old. Yes, he has pitched 4,039 innings. Those numbers say there's risk involved.
There are no sure things. But based on what he did last season — and based on what he has done for most of his career — he's worth the risk.
He still pitched 184 innings. He still had an ERA of 3.91. He still had 174 strikeouts and 18 quality starts.
If he can simply repeat those numbers, he'd be worth more than $8 million. He's not worth the $15 million he made last season. He knows this and offered to play for half that amount.
For teams with a real ceiling on what they can spend, Johnson might represent a reasonable, short-term investment. He'll make a decent buck in 2009, but he won't get a three- or four-year commitment.
There's a whole class of free agents like that. All carry some risk. Carl Pavano and Mike Hampton have injury histories. Brad Penny is coming off a tough year. Andy Pettitte is 36 years old and had a bad September.
They're gambles, but isn't giving Sabathia a six-year deal at $140 million a gamble? As teams worry about a decline in sponsorships and season-ticket sales, more of them are searching for short-term deals.
The Diamondbacks apparently offered Johnson around $3 million for the 2009 season. As much as Johnson apparently wanted to finish his career in Arizona, he was unwilling to take that large a cut from $15 million.
There were stretches last season when he seemed done. He was 6-7 with 5.23 ERA on July 12. After that, he was almost as good as ever, going 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA in his final 13 starts.
He finished with 8.46 strikeouts per nine innings — sixth-best in the National League. He had a 3.93 strikeouts-to-walk ratio — third-best in the NL.
He's likely to have a long list of offers, but the Cubs may make the most sense. They've offered Ryan Dempster a four-year, $50-million deal and may wait a few more days for him to accept or decline.
Signing with the Cubs would reunite Johnson with Lou Piniella, who was his manager for a time in Seattle. The Cubs have made an offer for Jake Peavy, but the longer the thing plays out, the less likely it seems the Cubs and Padres are going to have a match.
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He had a nice run in Houston in 1998, going 10-1, and with the Astros unable to re-sign Randy Wolf so far, Johnson surely would appeal to team owner Drayton McLane.
If the Phillies can't re-sign Jamie Moyer, Johnson would make sense. The Brewers will be shopping for pitching if they lose Ben Sheets and Sabathia. If Johnson prefers a warmer climate, there's always the launching pad in Arlington Stadium.
The Angels could also get into the mix if they fail to land Sabathia. In the end, Johnson will have his choice.
He's a different kind of guy. Don't rule out him going back to the Diamondbacks and trying to find a number both sides can live with. But, given that Arizona just laid off 31 employees, the Diamondbacks simply may not have the money to spend.
However, if the D-backs think they're going to find someone better, someone available at a reasonable price, they're probably wrong. For about a dozen other teams, Johnson represents an opportunity to get better.
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