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Four teams to start taking seriously now

Who will be this year's surprise? Try the Hawks, Suns, Cavs and Blazers

Last year, no one would believe that the Hornets — near the top of the West pretty much all season — were for real. Even after Chris Paul starting garnishing some MVP buzz, we all were waiting for the other shoe to drop. It did, kind of, when they dropped four of the last six, and ceded the top spot in the conference to the Lakers — a large market juggernaut with an embarrassment of riches. Sigh of relief for all.

Then, of course, New Orleans tore into the playoffs with cold-blooded gusto. The Hornets slaughtered Dallas, a veteran team expected to redeem itself for last year's Warriors debacle, before losing in seven to the Spurs in a series they easily could've won. San Antonio then got run out of town by Kobe and company, which in the end, showed just who deserved that No. 1 seed. Right?

The question is, who is this year's Hornets? What team will win and win and win, but be seen as pretenders to the throne until something (or someone) cuts them down to size? It's like we've so thoroughly absorbed the anti-NBA meme that "the regular season means nothing," that any success, right up till the final weeks, could very well be a mirage. The logic is thoroughly backward: Over so many games, the best teams are bound to lose interest, slack or rest. So that means that mediocre teams can sneak in and dominate? You'd think a larger sample size of games would be decisive evidence, not short playoff series, and especially in the second half, the pudding would be too thick too deny.

Therefore, looking at what little data we have for 2008-09, here's a brief account of what teams might be this year's Hornets: The ones that no one will take seriously until (cliche alert) it's too late.

Atlanta Hawks: Might as well start with the obvious. They put up a brave, Masada-esque fight against the Celtics last April, and then lost Josh Childress. This was a young team on the rise, especially with Al Horford filling out the middle with authority. Now, they're at 6-1 — without the services of shot-blocking, break-inspiring, morale-boosting Josh Smith, out with an ankle injury for another two or three weeks. They lost their first game of the season Wednesday — but a last-second shot by Paul Pierce was needed for the Celtics to win. And yet this team, with non-coach Mike Woodson, supposedly gets by on pell-mell talent alone.

Finally, though, I think we can take them seriously. Joe Johnson is perhaps the most team-friendly super-scorer in the league. Horford reigns supreme. Smith's return will be icing on the cake, especially if he's got a solid structure to work around — instead of being expected to provide that. And most of all, Mike Bibby's contract year has inspired him to show some consistency. This team will be over .500 all year, if not better.

Phoenix Suns: Steve Nash has looked awful. Leandro Barbosa has had like one good game. Boris Diaw is fat and neglected. Coach Terry Porter appears most concerned on making Shaq the key to this team's strategy, arranging everything to maximize the fading big man. This once-poetic team is rudimentary and often disengaged. And yet there's that 6-3 record, with a good shot at hanging around all season and finishing in the top four of the West.

Why? Amare Carsares Stoudemire, my friends. He's pretty much regained all his pre-surgery athleticism, but is a far craftier and more versatile player. In fact, at this point, he can dominate a game even if Nash is playing like his own worst stunt double. Amare's shooting percentage is up in more minutes, he's having an effect on defense, and just generally, he scares the living crap out of opponents. His 49 points against Indiana put the entire league on notice: This man has reached his prime, and with the slightest bit of support can keep his team in contention. A definite MVP candidate.


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