Johnny Benson

On Sunday the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship draws to a close at Homestead-Miami Speedway and while I’m picking Carl Edwards to win the race, it will be Jimmie Johnson who takes home the series title for a third consecutive season – a feat achieved only once in the 60-year history of NASCAR when Cale Yarborough won the Cup championships in 1976-78.

With a 141 point lead over Edwards in the standings, Johnson needs only to finish 36th or better, or 37th if he leads a lap, or 39th if he leads the most laps, to match Yarborough's three-peat.

So barring his No. 48 Chevrolet of Hendrick Motorsports experiencing a major problem or getting caught up in a big wreck, Johnson’s reign as king of Cup racing continues.

Working in Edwards’ favor
Over the last month the Roush Fenway Racing driver has been on a real roll, finishing fourth or better in his last four races, two of those being wins (at Atlanta and at Texas). The team of the No. 99 Ford is hungry for a win in the season finale. Edwards will race aggressively and he is one of the more determined drivers on the Cup circuit.

In the Chase Edwards has just two poor results. At Talladega he caused a wreck and wound up 29th and at Charlotte engine woes relegated him to a finish of 33rd. But in six of the nine playoff races he has come home in the top three. Edwards is the only driver still mathematically in contention with Johnson for the title and if he hadn’t had those couple of damaging days he might very well be a race away from his first Cup championship.

This will be his fifth Cup start at Miami, where he hasn’t won but does have a pole, two top-fives and three top-10s. In this event last year, he started 10th and ran well enough for a fifth-place result. On Sunday he’ll be in the chassis that he drove to a second-place finish at Kansas earlier in the Chase.

Johnson’s been super impressive
My hat’s off to Johnson, his crew chief Chad Knaus and the entire team of the No. 48 Chevrolet. They have been outstanding, especially over the last two months when it’s counted the most. Only once in the Chase has the two-time Cup champion finished outside the top 10 -- a 15th-place result at Texas. He’s won three races in the playoff, including last Sunday’s event at Phoenix.

Slideshow NASCAR champions Take a look at the drivers who have raced their ways to series titles since the circuit's inception.

His strategy for Miami will not change. He won't try to do anything different because he feels if he tries to he's only opening himself up to making mistakes. Miami is one of only six tracks on which Johnson hasn’t won a race and while he would love to take the checkers on Sunday, he’s aware of the big picture and that the first priority is wrapping up the championship. As for Johnson’s ride on Sunday, he'll be in a chassis that has given him three wins this season.

Johnson has never won at Miami but he has raced well there. Throw out his 2005 result when he wrecked and his first time ever racing at the 1.5-mile oval (2001 when he came home 25th) and the news has been all good for Johnson at Miami. He hasn’t been to Victory Lane but he has had two top-fives and five top-10s in seven Cup starts in the Sunshine State. In this event last year he captured the pole and wound up finishing seventh.

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