Waiting for star free agents is fool's gold
Teams are crazy to sacrifice present for chance to lure James, Kobe, Wade
Mark J. Terrill / ASSOCIATED PRESSToo many teams are sacrificing the present to get into position to enter the free-agent sweepstakes for LeBron James, left, and Kobe Bryant in 2010, writes NBA Expert Ira Winderman.
Q: What do you think of the Atlanta Hawks' hot start? Are they for real this year?
— Anonymous
A: The start is impressive because the schedule hardly was soft, what with the victories against the Magic, Hornets and Raptors.
The real issue is how you define "for real."
Could the Hawks get back to the playoffs, push a team in the first round, as was the case against Boston last season? Certainly.
Is this a team ready for a move beyond that? That's an entirely different question.
Two players likely will define the next step: Joe Johnson and Josh Smith.
Is Johnson a leading man? At times, he has thrived in that role. Yet at others, it's almost as if he prefers to be a versatile facilitator. His scoring average this season indicates he is ready, and capable, of that next step to something closer to a Wade, Kobe or LeBron, at least in terms of offensive consistency.
Then there's the enigmatic Smith, who appears on the cusp of translating his freakish athleticism into some more tangible on the court. While the current ankle injury that could sideline him for up to a month is a setback, he has taken a major stride this season toward becoming a premier defensive stopper.
A concern, though, is the quality of the rotation beyond Johnson, Smith and Al Horford. Already, Mike Bibby is looking more and more like a short-term rental, possibly to be cashed in at the trading deadline by the Hawks, just as the Kings did last season.
And while Flip Murray has gotten off to a surprisingly strong start, he is, at the end of the day, still Flip Murray. Ditto with Maurice Evans. What is needed is something closer to consistency from Marvin Williams and Acie Law.
Eventually, the lack of depth could have late-season losses catching up to the early-season success.
Q: When all is said and done, of this year’s rookies who will have the best career?
— Jerry, Seattle
A: Ah, nothing like instant analysis two weeks into 10-plus-year careers.
Not to be wishy-washy here, but it depends on how you define success: From a statistical standpoint? Or from a team-success standpoint?
Right now, O.J. Mayo is looking fantastic. The rub with Mayo around the draft was that there might not be much more of an upside, that this is all there might ever be.
Well, who cares? Because the way Mayo has started his pro career, he already is pretty close to an A-game level.
Now, will there be team success for the former Southern Cal guard? Of course not. He plays for the Grizzlies; they never win anything.
Instead, figure on Derrick Rose for years being able to provide a tangible payoff in just about every appearance. If it's not with his scoring, it will be with his playmaking. If not with a somewhat streaky shot, then with his impressive build.
Eventually, Rose will find himself surrounded by better talent that the hodgepodge John Paxson currently has in place in Chicago. That's when the winning will start.
As for Greg Oden? It's a tough call, and depends on how well that body holds up. The amateur orthopedists have already offered their views, but it truly will come down to longevity. Right now, it is difficult to project 10 years down the road with a player we're still not sure is going to remain whole 10 games into his career.
With the others, the question with Michael Beasley is whether the 'tweener forward can find a comfortable fit. There are similar concerns with Kevin Love.
A rookie (at least in NBA terms) to keep an eye on is Marc Gasol. That body works, as does the skill set. But will he stay stateside for any appreciable amount of time?
For now, bank on Mayo, count on Rose and then see if others such as Beasley, Love and even Russell Westbrook can settle into career niches.
Q: The Utah Jazz are cruising, but how long can they keep it up without point guard Deron Williams?
— Anonymous
A: They won't have to, with Williams' sprained left ankle finally allowing for a return.
Considering the undefeated start came to a crushing halt against the Knicks, the timing could not have been better.
Smoke and mirrors and Ronnie Price only get you so far in this league, especially when you've already utilized two of your get-out-of-losses-free cards with early-season games against the Clippers.
What the success in the absence of Williams showed is the remarkable system Jerry Sloan has in place. As long as you pick-and-roll and feed the post on offense, and bump the cutter (yes, we know it's illegal) on defense, the victories continue to accrue.
And while no one wants to play without their team leader, the opening run showed the Jazz that they can survive in the absence of Williams.
What the Jazz winds up with now is a newly slimmed-down playmaker who well might have benefited from the additional time off after spending his summer with the Olympic team.
Any other team would have bemoaned the loss of a leader. Sloan, of course, would have none of it. It is why he's found a way to win 1,000 games in the same place.
Ira Winderman writes regularly for NBCSports.com and covers the Heat and the NBA for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
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