OPINION

By Ryan Fagan

updated 12:37 a.m. ET Nov. 11, 2008

Take a step back for a moment and view the Matt Holliday deal from Billy Beane's perspective. The A's general manager is a trader at heart, a man who thrives on the thrill of the wheel-and-deal art he's perfected over the past decade or so with the A's.

What he acquired Monday (in a three-for-one deal in which the players going from the A's to the Rockies haven't been named yet) was the biggest trading chip of the entire 2009 season. Matt Holliday is a rare commodity — and you're fooling yourself if you think Beane is looking at him as anything but a liquid asset — a slugger with true power and the ability to hit for a high average. Holliday gives the A's an impact bat on offense, and he gives Beane instant flexibility in the front office.

Oakland isn't looking to sign Holliday long-term. They know his aspirations — to sign a big-money, long-term deal with a perennial contender after the 2009 season — and they know that his agent is Scott Boras. They showed, by making this deal, that they're cool with that.

There are two basic scenarios and both — if played right — will end with Beane and his A's coming out on top. And they won't be too shabby for Holliday, either.

Scenario No. 1. The A's start quickly and remain in contention in the A.L. West.

Seems unlikely, right? Don't forget, the A's last summer were only four games behind the Angels in the West in early July, and that was with an absolutely horrible offense. Holliday immediately helps that. "He gives them a major veteran force, a guy who's going to hit over .300 with 30 home runs or so and over 100 RBIs and play quality left field," one National League scout says.

The A's have an outstanding young rotation, and will again in 2009 (even with the expected loss of lefty Greg Smith in the trade). Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland, Dallas Braden and Sean Gallagher are back, and Gio Gonzalez is an outstanding young lefty who could be ready to step into the rotation full-time. Of that group, only Duchscherer was older than 24 this season. The A's bullpen developed into one of the best in baseball during the second half of the 2008 season. Sound familiar, Rays fans?

So, let's imagine that the A's start the season playing inspired baseball and stay in contention long past the trade deadline, with Holliday as the catalyst for change in the middle of the lineup. He'll be away from Coors Field, but at least one scout thinks that's not as big of a deal as some are making it out to be. "Nope, not at all," the scout said. "The numbers are going to be better because of Coors Field, but he's a pretty good hitter even if he isn't in Coors Field. Everybody's splits are better at Coors Field because of where it is. He's still a good hitter, and he'll be good wherever he goes."

So, in this scenario, Holliday stays in Oakland the entire season. The A's offer him arbitration after the year, which he rejects instantly, and signs where he pleases as a free agent. He gets to go where he wants and the A's get their two compensation draft picks to continue their organization-building concept.

Scenario No. 2. The A's don't find early season magic and are essentially out of the race by June.

It's not like Holliday is a bad player to have in the clubhouse full of youngsters. He's a guy the young A's players can learn from — Holliday didn't arrive in the Rockies as a can't-miss superstar, but that's what he's leaving as. "He's a quality guy, tremendous makeup," the scout said. "He's a good teammate. He's a very good player; he's just an expensive player. He's matured as a hitter, as far as plate discipline, ability to drive the ball to all fields."

Beane won't wait until the trade deadline for move Holliday if he senses a playoff run isn't in the cards. The Indians got added value by dealing CC Sabathia well before the July 31 non-waiver deadline, and Beane will do likewise. And when you consider the impact two deadline-deal sluggers — Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez — had on their new teams in the second half, you know Beane will get fair value. Holliday would get to play the second half in a playoff race, then sign where he pleases as a free agent.

And, if Beane can't find fair value, he'll hold onto Holliday the entire season, then collect his two compensation draft picks when Holliday signs elsewhere in the offseason. Either way, the A's get younger and their organizational depth grows.

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