Jake Peavy is worth whatever the Padres are asking for him. Any other questions?
Should we move on to free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira and free agent lefthander CC Sabathia while we're gathered here?
I know, I know. Your local general manager is going to tell you things aren't as simple as they seem. He is going to acknowledge that Peavy is a front-of-the-rotation guy. Only 27, Peavy is under contract for the next five seasons at an average salary of $15.6 million.
That's not cheap, but as Roger Clemens once put it so eloquently: "The going rate is the going rate."
At that salary, Peavy should be winning 17 games and throwing 220 innings every season. He has done that just once, however. And there's more. His career ERA in that cavernous San Diego ballpark is a more than a run lower than on the road.
Peavy has already pitched 1,261 innings in his career and dealt with a barking elbow for a time last season. He doesn't pitch deep into games, either. In the past two seasons, he has recorded just 16 outs after the seventh inning.
Your friendly local general manager, using all of this information to make his case against acquiring Peavy, is dwelling on the negative. That's why he needs a smart person like you to slap him in the back of his head -- in a friendly sort of way.
Your general manager is going to tell you how his owner is all over him to lower the payroll, and he is wondering if Jon Lieber has another season left in him. Or Freddie Garcia or Jason Jennings or Paul Byrd. Those pitchers all will be in a different tax bracket than Peavy next season.
The thing is, Peavy is a rarity -- one of the guys who elevates your team the moment he walks in the door. He is good for 200 innings and a sub-3.00 ERA.
Ask your team's general manager how many starting pitchers he'd rather have than Peavy. Sabathia? Sure. Roy Halladay? Of course. And there are Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee.
We can argue about a dozen other guys. The point is that Peavy is on the short list when you sit down to discuss baseball's best starting pitchers.
For the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Braves and Yankees, he might be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.
Don't give me that malarkey about all those young pitchers in your system and how they might do what Peavy will do for a fraction of the cost.
My logic failed me at the intersection of experience and expectations. Santana is money in the bank. He pitched 234 1/3 innings and had a 2.53 ERA. He went 16-7 and would have won 20 games if the Mets' bullpen had been better.
Hughes and Kennedy? Great arms. Great talents. No track record. They were a combined 0-8 with a 7.45 ERA in 17 starts for the Yankees in 2008.
Had Cashman shipped Hughes and Kennedy to the Twins for Santana, the Yankees would have been in the playoffs for a 14th consecutive year.
Which brings us back to Peavy. The Padres are shopping him this offseason, and any team that can take on his salary would be shrewd to close the deal as quickly as possible.
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Would the Dodgers trade lefthander Clayton Kershaw? Probably not, considering the money they're going to have to spend to keep Manny Ramirez.
The Cubs? They have young position players, but not pitching. The Angels? They might have the kids to make it happen. The Astros and Yankees both want Peavy, but have thin minor league systems.
On the other side of the bargaining table, Padres general manager Kevin Towers isn't going to get everything he wants. Quality pitching is in such short supply, and the weak economy has left teams jittery about spending big money.
Unlike last year when Astros general manager Ed Wade kept his discussions regarding Brad Lidge under wraps and then didn't get nearly enough for him, Towers has let everyone know Peavy is available. He has been fielding calls for almost a month, so he has an idea of what's out there.
Towers isn't going to restock his minor league system with a single deal, but he'll do well. And the team that ends up with Peavy will do really well.
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