Johnny Benson

There is no hotter driver on the Cup circuit than Carl Edwards, who in the last two weeks has posted wins at Texas Motor Speedway (Nov. 2) and Atlanta Motor Speedway (Oct. 26). So probably not surprisingly, Edwards is my favorite to get to Victory Lane on Sunday at Phoenix International Raceway.

With only Phoenix and Homestead-Miami (next week) remaining on the 2008 schedule, Edwards is second in the Chase for the Sprint Cup championship, 106 points behind Jimmie Johnson, who is trying to win the series title for the third consecutive year -- a feat only once before accomplished when Cale Yarborough produced a three-peat in 1976-78.

Is time running out on Edwards catching and overtaking Johnson? I'd have to say so, especially since I believe Johnson will cross the checkers on Sunday with a top-five finish. No matter how well Edwards and Greg Biffle (who is third in points, 143 markers shy of Johnson) run at Phoenix and Miami, all the two-time defending Cup champion needs in the final two races is to finish seventh or better and his reign atop NASCAR's top series continues.

Working in Edwards' favor
He’s on quite a roll on the track and the same can be said in the pits and in the garage for his crew chief Bob Osborne and the entire team of the No. 99 Ford of Roush Fenway Racing. Edwards is coming away with wins because he's driving the wheels off very fast cars and he, Osborne and the others are not making mistakes. No question Edwards and company are doing everything they can to put the heat on Johnson.

Edwards would like to both remember and forget his experience at this event last year. It's fun and a boost to his confidence to recall he captured the pole. But thinking back on engine woes that resulted in a 42nd-place finish invites whispers of doubt over his chances for good fortune at a point in the season when he needs such luck the most.

This will be his ninth Cup start in the desert. What he's come away with in the previous eight runs has been three top-fives and five top-10s. His numbers for average start (11.5) and average finish (14.5) are decent, but he knows if not the start surely the finish will have to be much better this time around because of where he's at in the playoff.

Given that he has had some solid results at Phoenix, Edwards is positive about the track. He says it is always fun to run the one-mile layout and he'll draw on some good vibes that tell him his Cup past in Arizona is evidence he has the ability to make a strong run at Victory Lane on Sunday. In his bid for a win he'll turn to a chassis that brought him home third in the first Chase race in September at New Hampshire.  

Other drivers to watch
Johnson has run so-so of late, struggling a bit at Atlanta where he got a lap down but then fought his way back and after a great call by his crew chief Chad Knaus late in the race to give up four spots to take four tires, he stormed his way to a runner-up finish. Once again Johnson and Knaus had worked their magic and that's the kind of stuff from which championships come.

At Texas Johnson's car underperformed. He and Knaus struggled all race to figure out how to find more speed. The result was a 15th-place finish, which combined with the win by Edwards cut the margin in the standings from first place to second place by 77 points -- from 183 points to 106 points.

But Phoenix may well be the late-season shot in the arm the No. 48 Chevrolet of Hendrick Motorsports needs to lock up a third straight championship. Johnson has won the last two Cup races at Phoenix, leading 120 laps in April and 55 last November. No driver has piled up more points than Johnson over the previous 10 Phoenix Cup events.

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Over that stretch he's never failed to complete a desert lap. And another good omen -- since he needs to come home seventh or better over the final two races to gain his three-peat -- is that only twice in his 10 Cup races at this Arizona venue has he had a result outside the top seven.

Biffle could turn heads with his performance on Sunday. He was ninth at Phoenix in the spring and in this event last year he came home second. He's had some impressive runs in Arizona, among them leading for 189 laps in November of 2005 and being in front for 151 laps in April of 2006.

This style of track fits Kyle Busch so it stands to reason he could run real well on Sunday despite his not having a Chase to write home about. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver doesn’t need to find out how to run fast and win at Phoenix. He’s been there and done that, getting to Victory Lane in the fall 2005 Cup race in the desert and following that up the next spring by capturing the Phoenix pole. This will be his eighth Arizona Cup start. In addition to his win and pole he has five top-10s, including three in a row extending back to the spring 2007 race.

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