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Cubs in need of an offensive makeover

Chicago has to break up right-hand dominated lineup

Image: Alfonso Soriano
The Cubs should trade Alfonso Soriano if they can find anyone to take his huge salary, writes columnist Gerry Fraley.
Lenny Ignelzi / ASSOCIATED PRESS
OPINION
By Gerry Fraley
updated 7:55 p.m. ET Nov. 3, 2008

When last seen, Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella was suggesting that his club might be more relaxed next season because it will be the 101st season since the franchise last won the World Series. Something about the round number 100 may have unnerved his club, Piniella theorized.

It certainly made top-level management lose its bearings.

Second-guess Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon all you want for his choices in the final game of the World Series, but Cubs chairman Crane Kenney made the bone-headed move of the offseason. He had a Greek Orthodox priest spread holy water in the club's home dugout before the playoffs began.

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One can only imagine Piniella's reaction when told of the stunt. Piniella spends all season trying to downplay the idea of a "Cubs' curse," and the team chairman is acting as if it is for real.

That's why the Cubs are the Cubs.

With Tampa Bay's rise this season, all four expansion clubs from the 1990s have reached the World Series. Arizona and Florida have won it.

And then there are the Cubs. They last reached the World Series in 1945. They have lost their last nine postseason games.

At least they won a series and came within a game of the World Series under Dusty Baker. Piniella's clubs have been swept in two consecutive National League division series, scoring only six runs each time. This season's club led the NL in runs during the regular season with 5.28 per game.

"You can play postseason baseball between now and another 100 years, and if you score six runs in a three-game series, it's going to be another 100 years before you win here," Piniella said. "So we have to score more runs."

To do that, general manager Jim Hendry will have to re-shape the roster and possibly eat some salaries.

The Cubs would be better off without left fielder Alfonso Soriano, who beats up bad pitching and vanishes against top-three starters. Soriano, waving at breaking pitches off the plate, has hit .107 with a .138 on-base percentage in the last two postseasons.

With six years and $106 million remaining on Soriano's contract, Hendry would have a difficult time moving him. The alternative is to lessen the damage he causes by hitting leadoff.

Soriano had a .350 on-base percentage when batting leadoff this season. Among the 10 National Leaguers with at least 80 games in the leadoff spot, only Milwaukee's Ricky Weeks and Colorado's Willy Taveras had a worse on-base percentage.

Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts would be a suitable replacement at leadoff. Roberts would bring needed elements of speed and good at-bats. He had an American League-best .379 on-base percentage when batting leadoff this season.

The next step is to give Kosuke Fukudome the Kaz Matsui treatment.

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Like Fukudome this season, Matsui was a huge bust after signing with the New York Mets before the 2004 season. He spent time in the minors in 2005 and '06 after being traded to Colorado. That helped Matsui revive his career.

Fukudome's spin-out swing combined with a collapsing body will not work in the majors. Opponents quickly found his weaknesses and hammered them. Fukudome hit only .217 with a sickly .640 OPS for 175 at-bats in the second half.

The majors are no place to fix a swing. To have a chance at hitting major-league pitching, Fukudome needs an extended period of swing-repair in the minors. There is no other alternative. Fukudome is untradeable, and he is unlikely to return to Japan and forfeit $38 million over the next three seasons.

Fukudome certainly is not the left-handed bat that Piniella wants. Neither is center fielder Jim Edmonds, who gave the Cubs one good month before fading. The Cubs must look outside to break up their log-jam of right-handed hitters, which includes first baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez.

In the regular season, the Cubs had a .579 winning percentage (66-48) when the opponent started a rigthhander and a .660 winning percentage (31-16) against lefthanders. In the last two postseasons, when the Cubs' offense stopped, opposing righthanders pitched 48 1/3 out of 54 innings.

The Cubs would have to free up salary space to make a run at free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira, a switch-hitter with power from both sides. Trading Lee is a possibility, if he would waive his no-trade protection and the Cubs find another team that believes his power will return after a two-year absence.

Outfielder Bobby Abreu (free agent) and Rangers corner infielder Hank Blalock (trade) are also possibilities.

"I was concerned about our offense coming into this thing," Piniella said after the Los Angeles Dodgers swept the Cubs. "And, basically, my concerns were realized."

That leaves the Cubs with two options: fix the lineup, or wait for Crane Kenney to get the bright idea of an exorcism. The Cubs need a change, or year 101 will end like the 100 before it.

© 2009 The Sporting News

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