OPINION

By Richard Justice

updated 1:31 a.m. ET Nov. 3, 2008

I wouldn't touch Manny. Sorry, not interested. Too much risk. Too much Manny.

I understand what I'd be passing on. I understand how good he is. He can hit 36 home runs and drive in 117 runs with his eyes closed.

Try to name three offensive players better than Manny. Albert Pujols? Sure. Alex Rodriguez? No. Lance Berkman? No. Ryan Howard? No.

Can't do it, can you? No offensive player in this free-agent class is even close to Manny in terms of talent and production.

He's good enough to elevate a franchise, to put a team on his back and take it to the playoffs.

He proved that with the Los Angeles Dodgers this season when he had one of the great runs in history: 17 home runs, 53 RBIs in 53 games. He batted .396 and had a .489 on-base percentage.

He transformed the Dodgers in ways large and small. He took the pressure off the kids. He made them better.

THAT'S what Manny is capable of doing. At 36, he has punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame, at least in terms of raw numbers.

He's 17th on the all-time home run list with 527 and 20th on the all-time RBI list with 1,725.

There's no denying his greatness. He's also not worth it.

If you absolutely, positively knew you'd get the Manny that led the Dodgers into the playoffs, you'd give him a blank contract.

You'd shove it across the desk and tell him to fill in the blanks. He's worth at least as much as Alex Rodriguez.

Some owner might do just that, although the country's economic problems has teams rethinking every expenditure, according to a variety of sources.

That said, some owner still may convince himself that Manny is worth $25 million a year.

He'll see him as a guy that can elevate his team the way Manny elevated the Dodgers. And if Manny is such a negative, how did the Red Sox win two championships with him?

It's true that are no sure things in free agency. Ben Sheets? He has been on the disabled list six times in his eight major league seasons and has averaged 10 victories, 23 starts and 151 innings the last four years.

Any team signing Ben Sheets must go into the deal understanding there's a risk.

There's a different kind of risk with Manny. What if he decides he doesn't want to play? What if he shows up at a key stretch of the season and announces he can't play?

He took most of September off in 2006 and 2007. He may have had legitimate injuries, but there are plenty of skeptics in his own clubhouse.

What about this year? When Red Sox manager Terry Francona seemed to question whether Manny was hurt, Manny appeared to shut it down.

There were at-bats in which he appeared not to be trying. There were runs down the first-base line that weren't at full speed.

Manny wanted the Red Sox to pick up the option on his contract, and when they refused, he appeared to loaf his way out of Boston.

If you think you know something about Manny the Red Sox didn't know, go ahead and throw $200 million at him.

But the Red Sox — and no one has accused this franchise of being dumb — paid Manny $7 million to stay away.

They reached the point where they believed it would be addition by subtraction. They got Jason Bay out of the deal, but putting him in uniform was less important than getting Manny out.

The Red Sox feel they were vindicated by how Manny played with the Dodgers. He hit .310 his last 53 games in Boston. He hit .396 his first 53 games in Los Angeles.

When the Dodgers agreed to let Manny become a free agent, Manny appeared to get interested again.

If he profits from loafing, it'll be an embarrassing moment in the history of baseball.

More than that, some team will be gambling that Manny will stay happy and interested for the length of the new contract.

That's a large gamble. He's not worth it.

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