OPINION

By Stan McNeal

updated 2:15 a.m. ET Nov. 3, 2008

As the Phillies and their fans celebrate the team's first World Series championship since 1980, the question already is being asked: Will there be another parade down Broad Street at this time next year?

Three reasons the Phillies will repeat

• They're just entering their prime. Pending free agent Jamie Moyer will turn 46 later this month, but the rest of the Phillies' key players are in or are just reaching their prime. When the 2009 season begins, ace Cole Hamels will be 25, setup man Ryan Madson, righthander Brett Myers and outfielder Shane Victorino 28, first baseman Ryan Howard and outfielder Jayson Werth 29, shortstop Jimmy Rollins, second baseman Chase Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz 30, and closer Brad Lidge 32.
• Charlie Manuel won't let them slide. The Phillies' manager is so respected by his players that they gave him the game ball from the World Series-clinching victory. One reason they respond to him is his steady approach. "With Charlie, the next game is always the most important," says Ed Wade, the GM who hired him in Philadelphia. An example of this focus: Manuel told Sporting News that when he was managing in the minors, he once didn't realize his team had reeled off an eight-game winning streak until an assistant told him.
• They can score. Howard led the majors in home runs and Citizens Bank Park yielded the third-most homers in the N.L., so the Phillies' homer-happy reputation is deserved. But they don't have to rely on the long ball. Rollins (47 steals), Victorino (36), Werth (20) and Utley (14) helped the Phillies finish third in the N.L. in stolen bases (136). Only the Cubs scored more runs in the N.L. than the Phillies.

Three reasons they won't

• History is against them. An N.L. team hasn't won consecutive World Series since the Reds went back to back in 1975 and '76. Only the Braves even have reached consecutive World Series since 1980. Another example of N.L. parity: In the past 11 years, 10 different teams have represented the league in the World Series, with only the Cardinals going twice.
• The main man is done. General manager Pat Gillick's plan is to retire to his home in Seattle. On Gillick's watch, the Phillies acquired Lidge, Moyer and righthander Joe Blanton in trades and signed Werth and third baseman Pedro Feliz as free agents. Yet one of his best moves might have been clearing room for Victorino to play regularly. The Phillies should remain in good hands if, as is being reported, they stay in-house and replace Gillick with assistant G.M. Ruben Amaro Jr. Of immediate concern for the successor: how hard to pursue Burrell, whose six-year, $50 million contract is up.
• The Mets aren't going away. Moving into a new ballpark only should strengthen their resolve to make up for the past two Septembers. You can expect the Mets to spend the winter throwing around major bucks. Adding a Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia or Francisco Rodriguez could make the difference between contending and pretending.

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