Johnny Benson

Jimmie Johnson is charging hard after and closing in on his third consecutive Sprint Cup title but I’m going with Matt Kenseth to keep the two-time defending series champion out of Victory Lane on Sunday when the eighth of the 10 races in the Chase for the Championship takes place at Texas Motor Speedway.

Working in Kenseth’s favor
Atlanta Motor Speedway – site of last week’s Sprint Cup Series race that was won by Carl Edwards – is very similar to Texas Motor Speedway in that they are both intermediate tracks with 24-degree banking in the turns and five-degree banking on the straightaways. So it’s not surprising that those drivers that are coming off a solid result at Atlanta expect the same – if not better -- at Texas. In each of the last three years the autumn events at the two tracks have produced the same winner.

That obviously bodes well for Edwards but also for Kenseth, who last week at Atlanta led a race-high 128 laps and crossed the checkers fourth. Kenseth thought his No. 17 Ford to be good enough last weekend that he felt he let a good chance at a trip to Victory Lane slip away. And let’s not forget nor minimize the fact that Kenseth drives for Roush Fenway Racing, an organization that is super strong on intermediate tracks.

Kenseth, the 2003 Cup champion, has had an up-and-down playoff. He wrecked in the first Chase race, followed that up with a pair of top-five finishes, then misfortune struck again as he wrecked in the next two races and came off that by rebounding to post a couple of top-10 results in the last two races. So although he is ninth in points and out of the championship picture he could definitely race to a win on Sunday.

Kenseth will be making his 13th Cup start at TMS and his resume at the track reads one win, five top-fives and seven top-10s. He has completed 98.8 percent of the laps attempted at Lone-Star venue -- and he’s led a total of 442 laps there. What’s more, it seems he’s racing the best he has all season.

Other drivers to watch
Edwards is second in the standings to Johnson, 183 points behind. He’s not been shy about coming out and boldly saying he is not yet conceding the championship to his rival from Hendrick Motorsports, but it will take a phenomenal last three races on his part and much bad luck on Johnson’s part for this playoff to reverse course and end up providing Edwards with his first Cup title and denying Johnson his third straight crown.

That said there is no reason not to expect Edwards to run well at TMS and make a strong bid at winning the race. Edwards has seven wins this season and at TMS he’s been super tough to beat with two wins in seven Cup starts. Two races have severely dented and all but destroyed his title chances: 1.) Talladega, where he drove too aggressively and caused a multi-car wreck and 2.) Lowe’s, where mechanical woes left him finishing No. 33 in the 43-car field. Outside of those two poor showings, Edwards has come home third or better in the other six Chase events.

Johnson, his crew chief Chad Knaus and the team of the No. 48 Chevrolet have been so on their game since a couple of races before the Chase began. Knaus’ call to give up four spots to take four new tires late in last week’s race proved a stroke of genius as his driver stormed back on the track and blew by car after car to finish runner-up to Edwards. At TMS, Johnson runs well with one win, four top-fives and seven top-10s in nine Cups starts.

There's a mathematical chance Johnson could wrap up the title after Sunday’s race. If Johnson leaves the Lone Star State 323 points in front of his nearest challenger, he would need only to start the final two races to again be crowned champion. The only driver ever to win three straight Cup crowns is Cale Yarborough (1976-78).

Dale Earnhardt Jr. hasn’t had the kind of Chase he hoped for -- he’s slipped to 10th, but he still wants at least one more win (he’s been to Victory Lane once this year, at Michigan in June) before the season is over. Junior has shown he can run fast at TMS, winning at the track in 2000 and having a Cup slate there of that win plus two poles, three top-fives and six top-10s.

The Chase started out badly for Kyle Busch, surprisingly so since he dominated the season up until the start of the playoff and entered it as the points leader. Busch, 12th in the standings, is coming off a fifth-place finish at Atlanta and that’s reason enough to factor him in among the top contenders at TMS.

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