Europeans will rule the world in Breeders' Cup
New artificial surface at Santa Anita should benefit overseas invaders
Julian Herbert / Getty Images fileJimmy Fortune and Raven's Pass get the better of the Johnny Murtagh ridden Henrythenavigator to land The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Sept. 27.
DAY TWO:
$500,000 Marathon, 1 ½ miles
If Breeders’ Cup organizers wanted a true Marathon, they should have made it 1 ¾ miles or 2 miles. Instead they are left with what amounts to a middle distance event for minor stakes winners and high class allowance runners. Sixties Icon, a 5-year-old from Britain that’s run against Duke of Marmalade, Papal Bull, Rail Link and Pride, and Zappa, a 6-year-old gelding with a victory over well Armed and Heatseeker, are the two to beat.
Sixties Icon (2-1), Frankie Dettori – Even though he’s on a three-win Group 3 Stakes streak, Sixties Icon isn’t the horse he was a couple years ago and Jeremy Noseda’s stable is ice-cold.. But he’s good enough to keep these at bay.
Zappa (5-2), Garrett Gomez – Connections are hoping that returning the incomparable Gomez to the saddle will give this locally based gelding an edge. It might.
Delightful Kiss (8-1), Calvin Borel – Pete Anderson’s one-horse stable may have produced the one horse that would thrill fans with a victory in this dull affair. Calvin’s a crowd-pleaser worth cheering for, too.
$1 million Turf Sprint, about 6 1/2 furlongs
Locals say that knowing Santa Anita’s downhill turf course and being able to run over a patch of main track before hitting the stretch are big plusses to success in sprints like this. Such skills give Get Funky, two for three in such situations, and California Flag, one for two, the edge. California Flag broke the course record last out.
Get Funky (9-2), Jose Valdivia Jr. – Many believed revenge-minded Get Funky was California’s best sprinter before he was upset at 3-2 odds by California Flag at 22-1 in the Grade 3 Morvich Handicap.
California Flag (15-1), Joe Talamo – At the post position draw, owner Keith Card said his gray Avenue of Flags gelding was blessed with the gate position that he wanted and would break the course record again.
Fleeting Spirit (5-1), John Murtagh – A tough spot for a 3-year-old filly, but Fleeting Spirit finished fifth of 20 starters in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp.
$1 million Dirt Mile, One mile
This tricky race, which begins at the finish line and requires the ability to handle two tight turns, seems to favor horses familiar with Santa Anita. With the recent 1 1/8 miles Grade 1 Goodwood Handicap an indicator, the preference goes to Well Armed, Winstar Farms’ Eoin Harty-trained Goodwood winner. If not for a neck loss to Go Between in Del Mar’s Pacific Classic, Harty’s hearty campaigner would be entering the Dirt Mile on a three-race graded stakes win streak.
Well Armed (3-1), Aaron Gryder – The horse, Harty and Gryder know the territory.
Lewis Michael (5-1), Eibar Coa – If there is any similarity at all among the artificial racing surfaces at Keeneland, Arlington, the old Santa Anita and Del Mar, this runner will have an affinity for Pro-Ride.
Pyro (20-1), Shaun Bridgmohan – Why not? The distance suits this resolute closer, and if you throw out his one bad effort on Polytrack, hitting the board isn’t beyond his abilities.
$2 million Mile, One mile (turf)
Big-mouth trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is already talking about how much money he’s going to wager on Kip Deville. There’s no doubt that the current reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile champion, two for two on the course, has beaucoup ability. But Freddie Head, who has trained eight Group 1 winners this year, has dreams that Goldikova will emulate the success that Miesque, another French-trained filly, had in this race at Santa Anita in the late ‘80s.
Goldikova (3-1), Olivier Peslier – If Halfway to Heaven has a big race in the Filly and Mare Turf, double whatever Dutrow bets on Kip Deville when you bet on Goldikova.
Kip Deville (5-1), Cornelio Velasquez – Controversial owner Michael Iavarone, horse racing’s poster boy for greed, supplemented Kip Deville to this race for 15 percent of the purse, despite a fifth place finish at odds-on in the Woodbine Mile.
U S Ranger (15-1) John Murtagh – Paco Boy, Natagora, Marchand d’Or –these are some pretty nice horses in this long shot’s Group 1 resume. He’ll be 40-1 at post time.
$2 million Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles
The mantle of pre-race favoritism falls to Munnings with Vineyard Haven on the sidelines. This does not look like a Juvenile which will produce next year’s Triple Crown race winners. Street Hero and Midshipman, the one-two finishers in the Grade 1 Norfolk Stakes, are obvious threats for reasons of their affinity with the Pro-Ride surface. But beware of long shots.
Bushranger (6-1), John Murtagh – A two-time group 1 winner on turf, the Brits hold him in higher regard than Square Eddie, winner of Keeneland’s Futurity in a romp. Although sired by a sprinter, Bushranger’s superior European fitness will help him get the distance.
Pioneer of The Nile (15-1), Robby Albarado – This Empire Maker colt showed what he’s made of in Saratoga. Jockey switch helps.
Midshipman (5-1), Garrett Gomez – Midshipmen doesn’t represent trainer Bob Baffert’s best chance in the Breeders’ Cup, but it would be no surprise to see him get his photo taken with this chestnut-colored Unbridled’s Song colt in the winner’s circle.
$1 million Juvenile Turf, One mile
Bittel Road, Skipadate and Grand Adventure may be inseparable in quality, and Westphalia, the class horse in the race, may not like the unforgiving sod. That leaves room for Coronet of a Baron, a colt that’s faded twice at shorter distances, in the selection mix. Given all the doubts cast by this group, the race is a toss-up.
Westphalia (5-1), John Murtagh - Danehill Dancer’s offspring want a cut in the ground, not the concrete lawn of Santa Anita. But Westphalia’s a legitimate Group 1 horse in Europe and that makes him extremely dangerous.
Skipadate (6-1), Shaun Bridgmohan – Skipadate should have won the suspect Grade 3 Summer Stakes, but Sam-Son Farm’s highly regarded Grand Adventure beat him to the punch by moving quickest to the lead in Woodbine’s long stretch.
Bittel Road (7-2), John Velasquez – Well, it’s widely known that Bittel Road’s a turf horse, but how many times can you win by a head as an even-money favorite? The 11 post won’t help.
$2 million Sprint, 6 furlongs
There will be four or five speedballs winging it out of the gate, which is nothing new for any Sprint, especially this one. Given a clear run, Street Boss can run them down, although it would be a safer call if he hadn’t drawn inside. Look for him to make his move at the top of the stretch and pray he isn’t too far back then.
Street Boss (3-1), David Flores – This Street Cry colt knows the surroundings and has been successful in several graded stakes, so it comes down to hoping the jockey times his move right.
Midnight Lute (7-2), Garrett Gomez – Baffert advises bettors to throw out the last race by his 2007 Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion and said that Midnight Lute is his best chance this weekend.
Cost of Freedom (4-1), Tyler Baze - This dependable Cal-bred gelding, a former claimer by Cee’s Tizzy, will be just off the lead and can take it when the leaders falter.
$3 million Turf, 1 ½ miles
The richest Breeders’ Cup turf contest is loaded with horses that prefer softer ground than they’re going to get on Saturday. Trainer “Shug” McGaughey is certain his Dancing Forever will acquit himself proudly in the running. At the morning line odds of 10-1, the Phipps Stable 5-year-old is worth backing. By the way, tab Conduit, an improving horse, for next year.
Dancing Forever (10-1), Rene Douglas – Investors have to believe that Dancing Forever’s last year is an aberration and not a dip in market value.
Out of Control (10-1), Garrett Gomez – It is a mystery why trainer Bobby Frankel tried this excellent turf campaigner against Curlin in the Woodward, a dirt race.
Soldier of Fortune (7-2), John Murtagh - The emphatic Irish Derby winner looks the class on paper. But he wants soft ground and will be a false favorite.
$5 million Classic, 1 ¼ miles
For the good of the sport, it would be great to see Curlin triumph. The 2007 Horse of the Year won the Classic last year and his owner, Jess Jackson, blessed the fans by keeping his champion racing. But there is too much doubt in the air around Steve Asmussen’s barn and a nagging suspicion, caused by the horse’s slow final quarters in his last two starts, that Curlin was a better horse in the spring than he is now. That makes it hard to bet him at low odds. These are “no-joke Euros” he’s running against, too.
Henrythenavigator (10-1), John Velasquez – The stable’s first-call rider switched to Duke of Marmalade, which is worrisome. But this Kingmambo 3-year-old is better than advertised. He arrived at Ascot for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes only an hour and a half before post time after being stuck at the airport because of fog, and then narrowly lost to Raven’s Pass. Here’s an added tip on what to look for from Carlo Zuccoli, an expert of European breeding and form - “If he’s coltish in the parade ring, he’ll be spot on.” Zuccoli believes Henrythenavigator’s dam proves that he will get the distance - a common concern.
Duke of Marmalade (10-1), John Murtagh – The one fear is that Duke of Marmalade might be over the top. He won five Group 1 races this summer before faltering inexplicably in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Go Between (8-1) Garrett Gomez – On the thinking that Curlin won’t perform to expectations (a scary thought!), the Bill Mott-trained Go Between might raise the American flag on the trophy presentation stand.
Vic Zast is a longtime NBCSports.com contributor and columnist for horseraceinsider.com.
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