Johnny Benson

The seventh race in the 10-event Chase for the Sprint Cup championship is Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Carl Edwards, who has about as an impressive resume as any driver could have at the 1.5-mile venue, is my pick to chalk up his seventh win of the year and his first of the playoff.  

Working in Edwards' favor
It's rare that the Roush Fenway Racing driver doesn't have a solid performance when competing at this track which really suits his driving style and which is very special to him since it's where he captured the first Cup win of his career in March of 2005.

Granted the sampling for Edwards at Atlanta is a rather short one extending over just four years but in that time he has won 25 percent of his Cup starts. No question, Atlanta has been very good to him and so it's no surprise he proclaims it as one of his favorite tracks. He’ll be making his ninth Cup start at the venue where he has two wins, four top-fives and six top-10s. He lays claim to an average starting position of 9.3 and finishing spot of 12.9. Only Jimmie Johnson tops Edwards in those two categories among the 12 drivers in the Chase.  

Edwards always has fast equipment at Atlanta. In the March event at this venue, it looked like he was on his way to a win when his engine gave out with 51 laps left in the race. But because the No. 99 Ford ran so stout to that point, crew chief Bob Osborne will have his driver in the same chassis as he did seven months ago at Atlanta.

Also what must be factored in is Edwards can fly at the top of the track and as well as any of his competitors and better than most. One glance at him running high and it's clear that he's not only breezing through lap after lap, he shows no fear over having to race real, real close to the wall, which is key to being quick up high at Atlanta. Edwards doesn't mind taking the risk of running that close to trouble. A lot of times it will pay off but there's always the chance the wall will make him pay and wreck his day.   

Thus far in the playoff Edwards has had costly brushes with misfortune and over aggressiveness. They have hurt his chances at winning his first Cup title. With four races left in the Chase, he sits fourth in the standings, 198 points back of the leading Johnson. There is no overstating how important a win on Sunday is to the eventual result of Edwards' playoff run.

Other drivers to watch
Start with Johnson but also among those to figure in are Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton, second and third respectively in the standings, and realistically the only drivers in the playoff field -- save maybe Edwards if all the stars align for him over the final four races -- whose chances at catching and overtaking Johnson are not termed next to impossible.

Johnson went into last weekend's race at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway 69 points up on the second-place Burton and 86 markers in front of third-running Biffle. But upon the conclusion of that short-track test, Johnson was in Victory Lane while both Burton (17th) and Biffle (12th) wound up with disappointing and costly finishes. The trio's respective fortunes at Martinsville enabled Johnson to more than double his points lead. He's now 149 markers ahead of Biffle, who moved up a spot to second, and 152 points clear of Burton, who fell to third.

Johnson swept both Atlanta races last year while this spring he started 11th and came home 13th. In his last 10 races at this venue he has crossed the checkers fourth or better in all but three starts. Over that span he has earned more points than any other driver. The El Cajon, Calif. native will be making his 15th Atlanta Cup start having registered three wins, eight top-fives and nine top-10s.

The two-time defending Cup champion has been on a tear since just before the Chase began. There continue to be many signs which point towards the No. 48 Chevrolet having a solid shot to three-peat. In case you’re wondering, the last driver to capture three consecutive Cup championships was Cale Yarborough, who achieved the feat from 1976-78.

Atlanta has the same banking (24 degrees) as does Lowe's Motor Speedway in Concord, N.C., where Burton won the Cup event two weeks ago. He'll bring back that winning car on Sunday. In 28 Cup starts at Atlanta, the Richard Childress Racing driver has seven top-fives and 13 top-10s. And since moving over to RCR in August 2004, Burton has delivered top-15 results in every one of his Atlanta races except the event in March 2006.

Biffle took the pole for this event last year and in 11 Atlanta Cup starts he has three top-fives and six top-10s. Plus, he has a solid history of racing at this track in the Nationwide Series with one win, five top-fives and six top-10s in eight runs.

The way I see it the top threats to keeping Johnson out of Victory Lane are Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart. Between them they have four Atlanta Cup victories.

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Like Edwards, Junior relishes running high at Atlanta and he too usually excels when doing so. Although he is out of championship contention (in 10th place, 354 points off the lead) he'll be looking to bounce back from last week's misfortune at Martinsville when just over 100 laps into the race he blew a right front tire and slammed into the wall. He got back racing after repairs but the best he could do was finish 36th.

The door to winning the title is tightly shut on Busch, who entered the Chase at the head of the standings. He's slipped to 12th place, 444 points behind Johnson. But in terms of what could happen on Sunday, it can't be ignored how well Busch ran (leading 173 laps) to win at Atlanta in March.

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