OPINION

By Gerry Fraley

updated 9:03 p.m. ET Oct. 15, 2008

BOSTON - This is when Boston turns to resourceful Curt Schilling, or snarling Josh Beckett or even Derek Lowe pitching for a contract, and gets back on track.

Not this time.

The defending World Series champions are in deep trouble.

That the Red Sox find themselves in a 3-1 hole in the ALCS going into Thursday's game against the Rays at Fenway Park is nothing new.

In their previous two ALCS appearances, Boston fell behind 3-0 to the New York Yankees in 2004 and 3-1 to Cleveland last season. The Red Sox came back each time and went on to a World Series sweep.

The difference this time is the Red Sox do not have the top-shelf starting pitching capable of pulling them out of the ditch and changing the direction of this series.

They lack the presence of Schilling, the common thread to the comebacks of 2004 and '07. Schilling might be insufferable and self-aggrandizing, but he always met the moment in the postseason. The Red Sox miss him.

They lack a full-speed Beckett. He is not right after a season riddled with injuries. That manager Terry Francona failed to acknowledge that and kept sending Beckett back out to lose leads in the second game of the ALCS stands as the turning point of this series.

Instead, the Red Sox have a rotation ERA of 7.78 against the Rays and 4.95 for the postseason. Their bullpen has pitched nearly as many innings (18) as the rotation (19 2/3) in this series.

In the four consecutive wins against the Yankees in 2004, the rotation had a 3.33 ERA, with only two earned runs allowed in its final 13 innings.

In the three consecutive wins against the Indians last fall, Boston's rotation had a 2.25 ERA.

It is difficult to envision the Red Sox's rotation coming to the rescue again.

"We certainly need to figure it out," Francona said after Tuesday's 13-4 loss. "The quicker we get to our bullpen, we're making it harder on ourselves. ... We've had a difficult time. We have not had an answer for a lot of things."

Slideshow Fall classics NBCSports.com takes a photographic look at the 2008 MLB playoffs.

Boston will use righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 5. Matsuzaka flustered Tampa Bay hitters in the ALCS opener by using more fastballs than expected, again displayed his uncanny ability to get out of trouble and worked seven shutout innings in a win.

"He never gives in," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "He's always going to attempt to make is pitch. You have to mentally match him pitch for pitch, because he does not give anything at any time. I really appreciate that about him."

Say Boston gets another good start out of Matsuzaka and wins Game 5 to send the series back to Tropicana Field. The stumbling block is what happens then.

Beckett is scheduled to start Saturday in Game 6. A year ago, that would have filled the Red Sox with confidence. Beckett went 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in four postseason starts last year, with the Red Sox winning those games by a combined score of 34-5. He started the ALCS comeback against Cleveland with eight powerful innings.

Beckett is physically incapable of doing that now.

His most recent injury, a strained oblique muscle on the right side, has disrupted his delivery and robbed him of velocity. Beckett's fastball has lost about five mph. That makes a major difference, as the numbers prove. Boston has lost both of Beckett's postseason starts, and he has allowed five home runs and 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings.

No lead has been safe with Beckett. The Red Sox have given him a lead four times in the two postseason starts. He has lost the lead in the next inning each time.

Beckett still has the hard-edged personality that makes him better on the mound. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, he hasn't had the stuff to back up the swagger.

"He's certainly batting some consistency issues," Francona said. "I think some of that is having some of your starts interrupted and then having an oblique (injury). It's been a battle for him."

That fight could end soon, unless Schilling finds a way to parachute into the series.

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