To qualify for a guaranteed BCS berth, the Mountain West champion needs to finish in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or the top 16 if it is higher than a BCS conference champion.

The first standings come out Sunday, and as we have seen, they are subject to be changed by goofy bounces, stupid coaching moves and other factors, including the weather.

In the latest Associated Press Top 25, the Mountain West has two schools — BYU and Utah — ranked ahead of the highest-rated ACC team (No. 17 Virginia Tech) and Big East team (No. 19 South Florida).

Do BYU and Utah have a shot at the national title game? Probably not, especially after once-beaten Florida leaped over the Cougars in last week’s rankings.

But a BCS berth is a virtual certainty as long as one of them goes undefeated.

Most years, the BCS bowls quietly breathe a sigh of relief when the last non-BCS team goes down. But this year may be different.

In the feeble Pac-10, it’s quite possible that only USC will qualify for a BCS berth. And if the sixth-ranked Trojans draw a bid to the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl would have to find a replacement. Ditto if it loses No. 3 Penn State to the title game.

In either case, it’s widely believed that the Rose Bowl would prefer to take a Pac-10 or Big Ten team with multiple losses ahead of an unbeaten Mountain West team. While Rose Bowl CEO Mitch Dorger stressed the bowl’s long ties to the Pac-10 and Big Ten, he rejected the assertion that the Rose Bowl won’t consider other options.

As in BYU?

“I think that people think that we don’t even look, and that’s not true,” Dorger said by phone from Pasadena.

The Fiesta Bowl, meanwhile, stands to lose the Big 12 champion — No. 1 Texas, perhaps. And if that happens, an undefeated BYU could be a blessing for the folks in the canary blazers.

Come selection Sunday, the Fiesta and the Rose Bowls both may have their eyes on the Cougars.

Now that’s crazy.

Also on NBCSports.com Howard: Look at what Agassi is now, not was PFT: Cowboys on rise in our power rankings NCAA FB: Ready for player exodus?  |    Top juniors   MLB blog: A look at the top 111 free agents Twitter: Follow us @nbc_sports

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