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Amazin' finish for Mets? Don't count on it

Odds stacked against New York in regular season's final weekend

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Jose Reyes celebrates the Mets' victory on Thursday. But the hoopla will likely be short-lived.
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OPINION
By Mike Celizic
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 2:01 a.m. ET Sept. 26, 2008

Mike Celizic
The Mets are probably going to miss the playoffs again, but they’re not going to go quietly. They’ll be kicking and biting and fighting and screaming “Don’t tase me, bro!” to the bitter end.

And it will be an end most bitter. It’s the only kind of end these Mets know. It may not be as bad as last year, but only because nothing that ever happened to any major league team in the history of the game was as bad as blowing a seven-game lead with 17 to play. But it will be brutally painful.

Mets fans, whose nails are bitten down to the elbow by now, know that. On Thursday night, they watched their team do everything in their power to throw yet another game away to a Cubs team that fielded a Triple A lineup. When Ricardo Rincon gave up a three-run homer to rookie call-up Micah Hoffpauir to give the Cubs a 6-3 lead in the seventh, the sodden crowd, who had come out in a Nor’easter to watch what wonders their heroes would work next, booed lustily. Two innings later, they would be cheering crazily when Carlos Beltran’s single drove in Jose Reyes with the winning run.

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The Nor’easter was just settling in and if the weather forecasters are right — a big if — both Philadelphia and New York could be washed out this weekend and have to finish this thing next week. And won’t that be fun?

The Mets’ Thursday comeback should be a sign of a team about to do great things. But this one was deceiving. Yes, the Mets came back, but they did it against a lineup of September call-ups. Cubs’ manager Lou Piniella was no more trying to win this game than Sarah Palin is trying to schedule press conferences.

There are three games to go for both the Mets and the Brewers, the team with whom the Amazings are tied for the National League wild card. And who they are playing is going to have everything to do with how this works out.

The Mets host the Marlins, the team that finished off New York’s epic collapse last year. Florida has nothing to play for other than the satisfaction of keeping the Mets out of the playoffs. That’s a powerful motivator for a team like Florida. Misery loves company.

The Brewers, who pulled off a miracle finish of their own against Pittsburgh to stay tied with the Mets, host the Cubs. And, as we saw Thursday night, Piniella has no intention of pulling out all the stops to beat anyone.

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Chicago has nothing to play for. The Cubs have the best record in the league and home field through the league playoffs wrapped up. There is no satisfaction to be derived from eliminating a divisional rival. If Milwaukee makes the playoffs, the Cubs play the NLDS against the Dodgers. If the Mets make it, the Cubs play them. Given that Los Angeles is the weakest team in the playoffs, the Cubs would probably rather have that first-round match-up.

But even if the Cubs want to cut down on their plane travel and play the Mets, Piniella isn’t going to run up the pitch counts on his starters and he isn’t going to wear out his bullpen to do it. His prime directive is to get his rotation set and bullpen rested for the playoffs, not to beat Milwaukee.

The Mets do have another chance — beat Philly to win the NL East. That’s not going to happen, either. The Phillies have three left against the woeful Nationals. They also have a one-game lead. If they win two, the Mets have to sweep to tie. It could happen, but given the Mets’ ability to blow leads, it’s not likely.

That’s the ultimate reason the Mets are probably going to close down Shea Stadium with yet another dose of misery for their fans. When Billy Wagner went down, they were left with the worst bullpen of any contending team. No lead is safe when in the hands of this crew. They’ve proved that time and time again. The bullpen isn’t suddenly going to learn how to hold a lead now, not when they haven’t been able to do it for a month.

Still, nothing is impossible. The Brewers could gag, too. Or the Phillies could swoon against Washington. The Mets could keep coming up with miracles.

If that were to happen, it would be the most amazing achievement in the history of the Amazing Mets. I don’t see it happening, and not many others do, either. But that’s why they play the games, because anything — even a Mets’ triumph — can happen.

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