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Trace Adams

By Al DeMarco GM - VegasAdvisors.com
Odds
updated 6:19 a.m. ET Nov. 24, 2009
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 Favorites Win Games --- But Pups Find More Funds: 

It's been a big few weeks for the underdogs in the NFL lately, as they were on a 28-13-1 ATS surge heading into Sunday's 14-game slate.

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Favorites had a huge day straight-up (SU), going 12-2, but the dogs still came out slightly ahead at the betting window, with a 7-6-1 mark against the spread (ATS). And with Miami's win and cover over Carolina on Thursday, the pups have an 8-6-1 ATS mark heading into the final game of Week 11, with the Titans at the Texans tonight. More on that below.

Of the six puppies cashing on Sunday, two of them posted outright upsets, and they were indeed outright upsetting for the losing teams. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers went into Kansas City as a hefty 11.5-point chalk, and left with a 27-24 overtime loss to the lowly Chiefs. And the hapless Raiders held the Bengals to just three second-half points in pulling out a 20-17 home victory as an 8.5-point dog.

FYIDidn't I warn you yesterday that the Bengals needed overtime to beat the then-winless Browns the game following their last upset of the Steelers? That's the problem with young teams; they're prone to big letdowns after big wins.

The Steelers, Cowboys, Vikings (my latest 15 Dime Best Bet Winner), Saints and Patriots all went off as double-digit chalks and finished 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, with Dallas joining Pittsburgh in failing to cover. In fact, the Cowboys barely beat the dismal Redskins, getting their only score of the game on a late fourth-quarter TD for a 7-6 victory.

 Adding Up the NFL: 

With the dogs consistently outpacing the chalks against the oddsmakers lately, they now have an 82-75-2 ATS mark through 159 regular-season games this year.

It's also been another solid week so far for the visitors, who went just 6-9 SU but posted a 9-5-1 ATS mark. For the season, road teams are now 86-71-2 at the betting window. But that shouldn't be surprising considering the success underdogs have had because most puppies are road teams, right?

The one trend that didn't hold up quite as well as it had over the season's first 10 weeks was that of SU winners also beating the number. SU winners are "only" 9-5-1 ATS thus far in week 11. It sure would be nice for a "bad" week to still ring up a money-making clip of 64.3 percent.

Even with the "letdown" from SU winners, they are still a superb 126-31-2 ATS in regular-season play, for a spread-covering rate of 80.3 percent. And if you include the NFL preseason games, it gets even better, as SU winners are 182-36-6 against the oddsmakers (83.5 percent).

 NFL Two-Minute Drill: 

We'll send you into your work week with a few more trends to wrap up Week 11 of the NFL season, delving into tonight's Titans-Texans tilt:

The Titans have won and cashed in their last three games, after starting the year 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS), and they are on additional ATS rolls of 16-7 getting points and 4-0 in November. However, they've cashed in just one of their last six AFC South affairs.

The Texans are on ATS upticks of 5-1 in division play and 4-0 in November.

The underdog in this rivalry is on a 9-3 ATS tear in the last 12 clashes.

Also in this rivalry, the total has gone over the posted price in six of the last seven meetings overall and five of the last six contests in Houston.

And speaking of totals, although the under has hit the past two weeks, the over is 19-7-1 in the last 27 Monday night contests, including 8-3 this year.

  • Al DeMarco, General Manager of VegasAdvisors.com and the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies at  VegasAdvisors.com

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