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By Al DeMarco GM - VegasAdvisors.com
Odds
updated 4:20 a.m. ET Nov. 27, 2009
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 NFL Newbies Continue to Slog Along: 

On this Thanksgiving Day, there hasn't been a lot to be thankful for among the 11 NFL teams with new coaches this season. Like I've said before, there's a reason why most of those teams have new coaches, and it's not because they're lighting up the league --- with the Colts being the obvious rare exception.

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This past weekend, the not-so-magnificent 11 went 4-7 straight-up (SU) and a slightly more respectable 5-6 against the spread (ATS). Still, generally speaking, these are not teams you want to throw your money behind without first giving it some serious thought. Over the past five weeks, squads with new coaches on the sideline have gone 17-29 ATS, covering the spread at just a hair under 37 percent.

That's not going to pay any bills. Sometimes, even when they win straight-up, they don't beat the number. Like Detroit last Sunday. As awful as the Lions have been lately, it's rare that they play from the favorite's role. But Sunday, they were facing Cleveland, another dismal team under a new coach. And hey, somebody's gotta be favored in what amounted to this year's Toilet Bowl.

So since the Lions were at home, they had to lay the customary 3 points. Then two putrid teams went out and lit up the scoreboard, with Cleveland running up a 24-3 first-quarter lead, then falling completely apart in losing 38-37 on a last-second TD pass. But hey, the Browns covered. Cha-ching for all you Cleveland bettors!

For the year, squads with new skippers are now 49-61 at the betting window. And there are still just three of the 11 coaches sporting winning ATS marks, paced by the 49ers' Mike Singletary at 6-2-2 ATS. The Colts' Jim Caldwell is 6-4 ATS, and his team is 10-0 SU, so that looks pretty decent. The Broncos' Josh McDaniels is also 6-4 ATS, but that record is looking uglier by the week --- after a 6-0 SU and ATS start, Denver has gone 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games, by a combined total score of 117-37.

The aforementioned Lions still bring up the rear against the oddsmakers, with a 2-8 ATS mark that is the worst in the league, period. One step above them are the Buccaneers and Seahawks, both with new coaches and both at 3-7 ATS.

 NFL Two-Minute Drill: 

There are two great traditions on Thanksgiving: Watching football, and eating yourself into a food-induced coma. And not necessarily in that order. We've got three NFL games on tap, so let's get right to the numbers:

The hapless Lions, playing in their traditional Turkey Day slot, are on ATS slides of 0-4-1 overall, 3-11 at home, 3-8 as a home pup and 0-5 on Thursday, with Green Bay in the Motor City today.

The Packers are on pointspread rolls of 16-7-1 on the highway, 9-4 as a road chalk and 8-3 inside the NFC North, but they've cashed in just two of their last eight Thursday affairs and are on a 4-15-2 ATS skid laying more than 10 points.

The over is 24-10-1 in Green Bay's last 35 games, 21-10-1 in Detroit's last 32 games, 4-1 in the last five in this rivalry, and 4-1 in the last five Ford Field meetings between the Pack and the Lions.

The Cowboys, also in their traditional slot, sport positive ATS streaks of 4-0 on Thursday (including a 34-9 Thanksgiving rout of Seattle last year), 12-4 in November and 7-3 at home, though they've also gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 laying double digits, with Oakland on deck.

The Raiders are on spread-covering slides of 10-22-1 in non-division roadies, 5-12 after an ATS win and 1-4 following a SU victory.

The Giants, visiting Denver in the nightcap, are a stout 22-6 ATS in their last 28 roadies and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite, but they've dropped their last five ATS decisions overall and are in an 0-4 ATS slump as a chalk.

The freefalling Broncos are on pointspread purges of 0-4 overall, 0-5 after a SU loss, 7-19-1 at Invesco Field, 7-23 after an ATS setback and 7-15 against winning teams. That said, Denver is still 8-3-1 ATS in its last dozen as a home dog.

 College Football Two-Minute Drill: 

So if you're not tripping on turkey tryptophan by tonight, but you've had your fill of the NFL, well, you can turn to the pageantry of college football, in the form of No. 3 Texas at archrival Texas A&M. We'll wrap up the holiday with a few noteworthy trends on that contest:

The Longhorns have won their last five games by an average of 31.4 points, and they are on ATS tears of 4-0-1 in the Big 12, 8-2 on the highway, 4-1 in November and 5-1 laying double digits.

The Aggies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home starts, and the home team is on a 9-2 ATS run in this rivalry, but A&M is shouldering negative ATS streaks of 3-8-1 as a pup, 1-5-1 as a home dog, 0-6 on Thursday and 16-34-1 following a SU win.

The SU winner is 8-0-1 ATS in A&M's last nine games.

  • Al DeMarco, General Manager of VegasAdvisors.com and the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies at  VegasAdvisors.com

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