Other drivers to watch
Well, a lot of folks like Bowyer, who is the defending race winner of this event and he pulled off that victory last September starting from the pole. But I don’t see Bowyer getting to Victory Lane. He might run strong but I don’t believe strong enough to win again.

Those I see as mounting the top threats to Johnson winning for the third time in as many weeks are Hamlin, Stewart, Harvick and Kyle Busch. Not in that top tier in my mind but obviously capable of getting into the mix to win are Earnhardt Jr., Burton, Jeff Gordon and a non-Chase qualifier, Kyle’s older brother Kurt Busch.

Burton has won at New Hampshire four times. Gordon has done so three times. Stewart has achieved the feat twice and with him winless this season many still are awaiting his typical late-season surge. Maybe it’s not coming this year with his announcement that he is done with Joe Gibbs Racing after the season but I – for one – wouldn’t count out the driver nicknamed “Smoke” getting on a run in the playoff.

My darkhorse is David Reutimann, who has come through with a pair of top-10 finishes the last two races.

Keys to success at New Hampshire
This is a flat track and its long straightaways and tight turns make it similar, but bigger than Martinsville (Va.) Speedway. It is banked at only 12 degrees off the corners. The key to this track is getting through the middle and off of the corners. A driver needs to get his car to rotate in the corner and have lots of forward bite exiting the corners.

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Racing well at New Hampshire requires a lot of throttle and brake input, and with a tremendous amount of braking going on, the right front tire can heat up and go flat. So it won't be surprising to see some cars get flats in their right front tires.

There is a passing lane to the inside, but this is a tough track to pass on, and if a car is not handling well that driver is in for a long day. Passing will be done through the center of the corner and off on the bottom of the track. The key will be to get through the center of the corner really well and to come off on the bottom. If a driver can get along the side of another car, he'll pretty much have the pass made.

With a resurfacing a couple of years ago New Hampshire came up with a great asphalt combination that produces terrific racing. Past issues of cars getting such grip at New Hampshire that the pavement actually tore up are no more and every driver is thankful for that.

When the track was resurfaced there was some more room created for the cars to run well in and it’s made this oval better for side-by-side racing. It should be a good show on Sunday, especially now that the stakes have been raised.