Johnny Benson

Kyle Busch is my pick to get to Victory Lane on Sunday night when the Sprint Cup Series visits the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif. for the second time this season. And if Busch, who sits atop the points standings, does takes the checkers he’ll increase his series-leading win total for the year to nine.

But the drama this weekend will extend beyond who wins the 250-lap test on the 2-mile oval. With just the Fontana event and the race next Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway remaining before the cutoff for qualifying for the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship, those drivers who haven’t locked down a berth in NASCAR’s 12-driver, 10-race, season-ending playoff are on the spot and feeling the pressure to deliver top-notch finishes. The Chase field is comprised of the top 12 drivers in points following the Richmond race.

Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are the only two drivers to have locked into the Chase. They hinted at strong showings come Sunday by finishing 1-2 in Saturday's Nationwide Series race at Fontana, Busch winning for the seventh time this season in NASCAR's second highest circuit.

The other drivers in the top 12 in the standings could with the right combination of factors – basically good finishes by them and poor outings or non starts by those pursuing them – clinch a Chase spot. While I expect some may make it into the Chase off the Fontana results, it’s likely others will be taking their playoff fate right down to the wire next weekend in Virginia.

Working in Kyle Busch’s favor
Since Kyle has an older brother Kurt, who also competes in the Cup series, I’m going to refer to Kyle by his first name so as to avoid any confusion. Kyle says that he really enjoys racing at Fontana and it’s easy to understand why. He has six consecutive top-10s at the Southern California track with one of them being a win in this event in 2005.

In the first Fontana race this year in February he drove to a fourth-place result – a finish that enabled him to take over the points lead. He would lose that lead but regain it after the first Richmond race in May and he’s been atop the standings ever since.

“Rowdy,” as Kyle is called did something special by winning at Fontana three years ago. Then age 20 he became the youngest driver to win a Cup race. And his win accurately hinted that he would rustle up continued success at this venue where in addition to his string of impressive finishes he has led for 229 laps in eight Cup starts. It just keeps going good – real good – for Kyle at Fontana.

Kyle has locked up the top seed in the Chase so he will be able to take risks on Sunday night and race aggressively. There is plenty of room to pass at this oval and Kyle -- with nothing to lose points-wise – will seek to take advantage of that.

Also keep in mind that Kyle’s confidence is soaring and his momentum is at full tilt because he has finished either first or second in five of the last seven Cup races, winning three of those events. Late summer brings with it heat and Kyle’s answer to that is to get even hotter. On Friday he qualified 11th.

Other drivers to watch and the bubble battle
Kyle, who drives for Joe Gibbs Racing, has a budding rivalry with Carl Edwards of Roush Fenway Racing. Edwards, who last weekend at Bristol chalked up his sixth win of the season (second best to Kyle on the year), won at Fontana in February so he’s bidding for a sweep. Edwards is second in points and he’ll be in a Ford (Kyle runs a Toyota) and he’ll be hoping that history repeats itself as Fords have won more than any other manufacturer at Fontana -- nine victories in 16 races. And Edwards owns six top-five finishes in eight starts at Fontana. His qualifying could have gone better, however, as he will start from position No. 26.

It will be interesting to see if there is any bad blood between Edwards (who has won three of the last four Cup races) and Kyle this weekend as NASCAR has put both drivers on probation for the next six Sprint Cup races following their on-track incident at the end of the Bristol race last weekend.

That incident took place on the lap that’s run after the finish of each race giving drivers the chance to cool down but at Bristol Kyle and Edwards were anything but cool on this lap. Kyle drove next to Edwards and bumped his car. The response from Edwards was to pilot the nose of his car into Kyle’s car and spin Kyle out.

The post-race dustup was the result of Edwards nudging Busch aside with 30 laps remaining in the race. Kyle probably took that move as insult to injury since he had led the previous 415 laps. Kyle’s fired up about what went down saying he’ll race Edwards in that fashion in the Chase “if that’s the way (Edwards) wants to race.” Stay tuned, folks, it might only get better from here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Burton -- who are third through fifth in the points -- can capture a place in the Chase at Fontana. Junior makes the playoff if he finishes 40th or better or leads a lap and finishes 42nd or better. Johnson, who is the defending champion in this event and who has the pole, can lock into the playoff by finishing 40th or better or leading a lap and finishing 41st or better. And Burton will be in if he crosses the checkers 15th or better, 17th or better if he leads a lap, or 20th or better if he leads the most laps.

To clinch a Chase spot, a driver needs to leave Auto Club Speedway with a 196-point lead over 13th place. That means Tony Stewart, who is sixth in the standings and enters the race 170 points ahead of 13th place, needs to pad his lead over the unlucky No. 13 (currently David Ragan) by 26 points.

Stewart is winless on the season and Fontana is one of four Cup tracks he has never won at. But he has three top-10s in his last four starts out West.

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