Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s strong history at Bristol suggests he won’t disappoint his fans this weekend. Junior, who is currently fourth in the points, won this event in 2004. After starting 30th he rallied to dominate and led for 295 laps on his way to Victory Lane.

Since that win Junior has recorded six top-10s in his last seven Bristol starts, including a pair of fifth-place results in each of the last two races.

Also keep an eye on Clint Bowyer and David Ragan, my darkhorse pick. Both drivers are competing for spots in the Chase and are only 26 points behind Denny Hamlin, who is 12th in points — which is the cutoff for making the playoff.

Bowyer has finished third in each of the last two Bristol races. Ragan, meanwhile, has not fared as well at Bristol on the Cup circuit but he did drive to a sixth-place finish in last year’s Nationwide Series spring event at the Tennessee track.

Keys to success at Bristol
The changes made to Bristol following last season’s March race are worthy of high praise. I ran and won the Craftsman Truck Series race there last August, and finished fourth in this year’s truck race on Wednesday night. The concrete is unbelievable. It's just a pleasure to race on. It's smoother than the previous track surface, three feet wider and the move to variable banking eases the transitions all around the track.

Bristol is still a track where a driver cannot try and force the issue. If he does, most often the result will be a wreck. Qualifying up front and staying up front during the race is the best way to avoid wrecking but with so many cars fighting for position on so small a track, it’s easy to get caught up in someone else’s crash.

The racing at Bristol is intense and there will be plenty of bumping and banging. So good fortune is a bigger factor at Bristol than at many of the other tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit. You have to be lucky if you are going to keep from getting caught up in a wreck.

The right combination of shocks and springs is crucial as are top-notch, error-free pit stops. On green-flag pit stops a key is to remember that based on where a driver is on the track — front stretch or back stretch — he will have to enter the pits either off Turn 2 or Turn 4. It's a costly mistake to enter from the wrong turn as Jeff Gordon has twice done at Bristol.

The winner at Bristol will be the driver who had the right amount of patience, aggressiveness and luck.

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