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A key injury here, the demotion of Melky Cabrera there, and then not one, but two misplayed fly balls by Johnny Damon in a 2-1 loss in Toronto last week — all these things making the end of a 13-year run seem more inevitable.
But just as you get used to — and maybe smile about, right Yankees’ haters? — that concept, here comes another potential American League East shocker. And we’re not talking about the Tampa Bay Rays running away from the field, either.
We’re referring to the very real possibility of both the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox being idle come October. You have to go back to the pre-strike, pre-wild-card, two-division, 1993 season for the last time that happened — when the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox met in the ALCS, and there was no such thing as division series.
Looking at the current standings, you can make the case that we’re sounding rather alarmist. The Red Sox are a not-insurmountable 4 1/2 games behind the Rays in the AL East race, and are 1 1/2 ahead of the Minnesota Twins in the wild-card chase — both comfortably ahead of the Yankees.
But when you look down the stretch at what amounts to a five-teams-for-three-spots race to join the Angels in the playoffs, it’s not a stretch to pick the Rays and the two AL Central contenders to round out the field:
Rays: The only thing you still can possibly be holding against the Rays at this point are injuries to Carl Crawford and Troy Percival. But they have worked around injury issues all season, rely on pitching (second in the league in ERA) and defense, and taking two of three from the Angels at the Trop this week has to tell you they aren’t going away. Since the All-Star break, they have the AL’s best record. It says here their magical mystery tour of a season will extend into October.
White Sox: They lead the Twins by one game in the Central, have won 7 of 10 and are dominating at US Cellular Field, where their home-run power gives them a big edge. They lead the league in home runs and are tied for second in runs scored behind Texas.
The Sox are not much above .500 since the break, and although they don’t have a standout ace, they run a quality starter to the mound each night, and have one of the league’s deepest 'pens. Overall, their pitching has remained among the top third in the league all season (currently third in team ERA).
A huge run differential says they should be going back to the playoffs, but the schedule is difficult: 16 at home and 19 on the road, including series with the Rays, Red Sox, Angels, Yankees and Twins.
Red Sox: Barely .500 since the break (12-6 without Manny Ramirez), they currently are wondering when ace Josh Beckett can shake the numbness in two fingers on his pitching hand and make another start.
The Sox also had to send struggling Clay Buchholz back to the minors — although Tim Wakefield is close to coming off the disabled list — and the bullpen has been leaky. They are tied for second in runs scored, sixth in team ERA, and plus-117 in run differential.
The home/road split (20/16) is good, but a tough schedule includes home-and-home series with Tampa, New York and Toronto, plus three with the White Sox. Is an offense that now revolves around Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis enough to get them back to the playoffs?
Twins: The Twins are 19-12 since the break, and have added a frontline starting pitcher in Francisco Liriano. Still, they are relying on a very young and inexperienced rotation that isn’t stretch-run tested, and could have to lean more heavily on a very good bullpen.
In Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, they have two MVP candidates, and finally are getting at least some power production from Delmon Young. They are sixth in runs scored, eighth in team ERA and plus-62 in run differential. But as we’ve learned over and over in recent years, when it comes to the Twins, the whole is better than the sum of its parts.
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Yankees: Closer to fourth place in the East than the wild card, they trudge down the stretch looking more in need of a revitalizing roster shakeup than ever. And they are expected to run Carl Pavano out to the mound Saturday for only the third time since 2005.
The schedule also works against them — 16 at home and 20 on the road, including the last six at Toronto and Boston, and a brutal early-September trip that goes like this: Makeup game in Detroit, three at Tampa, three at Seattle (brutal travel there), and three at Los Angeles.
SportsTalk: Albert Pujols signs with the Angels and Prince Fielder joins the Tigers. Which team is better now?
HBT: Prince Fielder is gone and Ryan Braun will likely miss a third of the season because of a failed PED test. Can Milwaukee stay in contention until he gets back?
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