Special feature

Who's available A look at the top NBA free agents on the market in 2008

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Sam Smith

Well, not quite yet as teams have to wait until July 9 to officially begin signing free agents and making trades. But I wanted to be the first to say it, and no one has said it much since the days of Ernie D. and McAdoo Can Do.

The winner of this summer's free agency appears to be the Los Angeles Clippers with the apparent theft of point guard Baron Davis from the Golden State Warriors and the likely resigning of their own free agent, forward Elton Brand — though the now desperate Warriors will make a bid for Brand.

It's not likely to go anywhere because I believe Brand, who has been in the playoffs just once in nine seasons, does put winning first. And his best chance is with the Clippers.

Did I really write that? Yes, my fingers kept having spasms.

But if this all comes together with Davis, Brand, Chris Kaman and some good pieces in Cuttino Mobley, Tim Thomas and Al Thornton, the Clippers have an excellent chance to help undermine the balance of power in the Western Conference.

Suddenly, recent perennial 60-win teams like the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks figure to have trouble just making the playoffs, along with the Denver Nuggets, while the Clippers and perhaps Portland move ahead of all three. The Spurs will turn over their bench and hope Manu Ginobili isn't breaking down. It could be a whole new world in the West, and the Clippers could be a big part of it.

The Warriors don't look like a playoff team with this colossal personnel mishap as Davis has been telling friends he actually agreed to a three-year deal to stay with Golden State that was then squashed by the owner. From there, it has been a desperate attempt to recover with entreaties to Gilbert Arenas — who will likely stay in Washington now that Antawn Jamison has re-signed — and Brand. I don't believe Brand is the type of person who'll chase every dollar. He'll get a big deal, and after all, it is Los Angeles, which he enjoys.

Though these maneuverings will set off a chain reaction throughout the NBA.

Already, the Mavericks are in panic mode — you can just hear owner Mark Cuban screaming "Call them again!" at general manager Donnie Nelson — trying to peddle most of their major players other than Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki. They appear headed for a major stumble as they may well be a lottery team by 2010, when the New Jersey Nets have their draft pick from the ill-fated Kidd deal.

Dumb, da, dumb, dumb.

You can just imagine the Warriors on the phone to the Chicago Bulls or Memphis Grizzlies with the Davis debacle, declaring, "We need a point guard."

Perhaps the most appealing and seemingly available player is the Bulls' Kirk Hinrich because Chicago selected Memphis guard Derrick Rose with its No. 1 pick in the draft. But with the uncertainty of re-signing Ben Gordon and the fact Larry Hughes is only on the roster so the Bulls could dump Ben Wallace's ugly salary, Chicago might need to keep Hinrich for insurance. The Bulls are more likely to take a run at a big man, perhaps Sacramento's Mikki Moore, by dangling small forward Andres Nocioni.

The Kings are likely suitors because they have drafted big men in each of the last two years and now have a surfeit of forwards/centers, if not All-Stars. And the Kings could use a small forward with Ron Artest serving notice that he's about to lose it. Artest declared moments after not opting out of his contract that he should have, which is warning enough to the Kings that Artest won't survive the coming season. Sacramento may be able to move Artest to the Los Angeles Lakers, who were abused by Boston Celtics swingmen in the NBA Finals. It would also set the stage for the Lakers to deal Lamar Odom and perhaps land one of those veteran big men for insurance as well.

With all that said, if I'm the Bulls with Rose in hand, I'd try to put together a package of Hinrich and Nocioni to the Utah Jazz for Andrei Kirilenko. You figure the Jazz can't handle Kirilenko's bloated contract much longer and need another guard to support Deron Williams. And Kirilenko is best at power forward, a position the young Bulls need to fortify.

But the likelihood of Brand re-signing with the Clippers changes some teams' plans.

Brand's agent, David Falk, had been letting a few teams like the Bulls and Miami Heat know Brand could be had. The Heat were especially interested even with the drafting of Michael Beasley (that's why Miami wanted Rose so badly — because the Heat thought they had Brand locked up as a free agent after next season).

Miami doesn't figure to retain Shawn Marion beyond next summer, so now it appears the Heat will point toward Utah's Carlos Boozer, who has his offseason home in Miami. Though if that's the case — and it's unclear because of Beasley, and Boozer isn't particularly effective without a good point guard — the Jazz might have to hold onto Kirilenko as a replacement.

Got all that?

Here's a look at other possibilities around the league:

Milwaukee: The Bucks might want to inquire about Kirilenko. It would likely cost they someone like Michael Redd, though Kirilenko would fit better into new coach Scott Skiles' defensive style. And the Jazz desperately need a shooting guard.

Memphis: The Grizzlies, who have made it clear that guard Mike Conley is untouchable, will move either one or two of their other guards — Javaris Crittenton, Marko Jaric or Kyle Lowry.

New Jersey: The Nets, who are rebuilding, need to figure out what to do with Vince Carter. With Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson both gone (and their contracts off the books), Carter's contract — good through 2011 — remains an issue.

New York: Zach Randolph may be unmovable unless a team is willing to take a flyer on the former 20-point, 10-rebound a game forward. The bonus, in case he didn't return to form, is that he has an expiring contract.

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Nathan Denette / AP

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