“I’m only one player. I’m not God.”

Those words came courtesy of Derrick Coleman on NBA draft night in 1990 after Coleman, selected No. 1 overall by the New Jersey Nets, had been asked to share his thoughts on turning around the Nets’ sad fortunes. New Jersey had won just 17 games the previous season.

Coleman’s point is well-taken, but it will never prevent NBA general managers, coaches and scouts from looking for the next savior. Will they find it in Derrick Rose, the quick and compact point guard from Memphis? Or in Michael Beasley, the power forward with shooting range and a thirst for rebounding? Or in someone else, someone perhaps the entire league thus far has miscalculated in its projections?

Despite the studying — of film, of measurements, of body types, of private workouts, of similar players, of character and of more available research and data than ever before — the NBA draft still is not, and never will be, an exact science. At its best, it’s part evaluation, part craps table.

Owning the No. 1 overall selection, however, is different. The process is the same, but the short- and long-term scrutiny, impact and pressure to get it right are immense. A team needs to land the player in the draft who will put together the best pro career, and that player had better be a multi-year all-star, the face of the franchise and the foundation around which the rest of the team will be built. Winning an NBA title wouldn’t hurt either.

This year’s draft will be held Thursday. The Chicago Bulls will select first, which means they have the toughest decision of all. If there’s a future MVP candidate and/or Hall-of-Famer in the field, they have to identify him now. This year's decision is especially difficult because there is no consensus No. 1. Opinions differ on Rose, Beasley and even USC guard O.J. Mayo, three players all younger than 21.

“You have to do all the research into what kind of people they are,” said former coach Chuck Daly, who won two championships with the Detroit Pistons. “Are they going to come to play every night? Who are they hanging out with? What are their habits? All of that enters into your decision.”

In the 23 drafts beginning with the 1985 edition that also incorporated the first draft lottery, there have been several in which the No. 1 pick was clear: Patrick Ewing to the Knicks in 1985, David Robinson to Spurs in 1987, Shaquille O’Neal to the Magic in 1992, Tim Duncan to the Spurs in 1997 and LeBron James to the Cavs in 2003.

Charlie Riedel / AP Kansas State forward Michael Beasley is one of two contenders to be the No. 1 overall pick in Thursday's NBA draft.

The other years were more challenging, as teams made most of those No. 1 decisions with lots of hand-wringing and tentative tosses of those casino dice.

Since 1985, there have been seven go-either-way drafts where teams with the No. 1 pick had to make a choice, similar to this year, between backcourt and frontcourt. On six of those occasions, teams determined big was better than small, a strategy that dates to, oh, roughly when the first baskets were built. Here are the results of those seven:

• 1990 — Nets selected Coleman over Gary Payton;
• 1991 — Hornets selected Larry Johnson over Kenny Anderson;
• 1994 — Bucks selected Glenn Robinson over Jason Kidd;
• 1998 — Clippers selected Michael Olowokandi over Mike Bibby;
• 1999 — Bulls selected Elton Brand over Steve Francis;
• 2002 — Rockets selected Yao Ming over Jay Williams.

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The only year when the guard won out was 1996, when the 76ers chose Allen Iverson ahead of Marcus Camby. The two are now teammates with the Denver Nuggets.

As the list above indicates, sometimes the guard would have been the right choice. Other times, the frontcourt player proved better in the long run. There is disagreement, however, over how to build a roster. Some teams believe in starting in the middle, focusing on post play, rebounding and interior defense. The dissenting view is to secure a perimeter player, ensuring ball-handling and creating ability, lock-down defense and long-range shooting.

With the recent emergence of dynamic point guards such as Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chris Paul and, to a slightly lesser degree, Brandon Roy — and a desire shared by many teams to play at a faster, guard-driven tempo — the value of ball-handlers who not only facilitate, but also dominate, continues to rise.

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“In this day and age, I would go point guard, but he better really be good,” said Daly, who coached standout point guard Isiah Thomas with the Pistons. “He’d better be an all-star, and that encompasses a lot of things: his physique to take the pounding, his decision-making and what kind of shooter he is. This is key, because at the end of the shot clock, the ball usually comes back to the guard and he’s got to make something happen or shoot the ball.”

For all the focus on point guards, however, the past 10 NBA champions have been anchored by elite centers and power forwards Shaquille O’Neal, Duncan, Detroit’s Wallaces and Kevin Garnett.

The question is, should position preferences dictate draft selections?

“You’d better take the best player, regardless of position, even if you’re strong in that position,” said Pat Williams, senior vice president of the Orlando Magic. “If you don’t, it will bite you. The Bulls have to figure out who’s going to be the better player regardless of position, regardless of anything else.”

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