Getty ImagesDale Earnhardt Jr. is making his move to Hendrick Motorsports look like an extremely wise choice. Junior hasn't won yet this year but he is third in points (compared to 14th at this stage in 2007) and his driver rating is second to that of Kyle Busch. In 17 Cup starts at Michigan, Junior has two top-fives and five top-10s.
The most quietly consistent driver in the Cup Series this year has been Jeff Burton, who is second in points and just 21 markers from the top spot. Burton and his team at Richard Childress Racing are a smart group and they certainly have what it takes to make a serious run at winning the veteran driver his first Cup championship. Burton has never won at Michigan but does have two poles, four top-fives and eight top-10s there.
Two other Roush Fenway Racing drivers get my attention in this race: Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth. Biffle has missed the Chase the last two years but is having a season so far that will get him into the playoff. Last year he struggled at Michigan but prior to 2007 he had posted five straight top-10s there, including two wins. Kenseth has twice been to Victory Lane at Michigan. His success at the track extends beyond those victories with seven top-fives and 11 top-10s in 17 starts.
My darkhorse is Brian Vickers, who has three top-10s in eight Michigan starts and is steadily picking up the pace in the No. 83 Toyota of Red Bull Racing.
Keys to success at Michigan
To run this track and to run it well a driver needs a lot of experience. That experience translates to the ability to find more grip -- if needed -- on this very wide track. This is a track where drivers can run two and even three distinct grooves. With the multiple grooves there is a lot of room for drivers to move around and make some exciting passes.
If a driver can't get his car to grip on the bottom of the track, he can try to run in the middle or run high. And drivers like Kasey Kahne, who have reputations for going to the top of tracks, will likely look to run up high at Michigan. With the new car it should be harder to run the bottom of the track, which would give advantage -- especially in he closing stages of the race --to the drivers whose setups work well racing in the high groove.
With a wide track offering a lot of room to run and to pass, races at Michigan are usually pretty clean. Managing fuel is always a major challenge, and engine tuning is the most critical factor in getting maximum fuel mileage. Drivers have to be extremely conscious that races at Michigan have most often been decided by fuel mileage so they have to be very careful of how they run the throttle. Crew chiefs will be under greater pressure to make the right calls with fuel mileage such a key factor. For them they have to hit on a balancing act of horsepower and fuel mileage that will suit them best in the race.
Finally, there's a long pit road at Michigan so I expect some drivers will be penalized for speeding, especially under green-flag pit stops.
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