Jim McCabe

No task is too tough, no hurdle too high. With Tiger Woods, even the impossible is possible and the improbable probable.

At least, usually that’s the case, but not this time. No, on this occasion, there will be too much to overcome. A victory in the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines will not unfold for Woods this week.

Will you be in position to come back a week from now and throw those words in my face? It wouldn’t be surprising. The man, after all, has won 13 of the 45 major championships in which he’s played professionally, an unthinkable 29 percent, so it’s probably a bigger surprise to say he won’t win than to suggest he will win.

But this week, give me the bigger surprise.

Put me down for a no.

Things will be different a year from now when we’re at Bethpage Black on Long Island. So far as 2010 goes at Pebble Beach on the Monterey Peninsula, you’d have to love Woods’ chances there, but that’s getting far, too far ahead of ourselves. The matter at hand is this year’s U.S. Open and why Woods won’t win it.

It has not a thing to do with his knee. It has everything to do with the tournament’s face.

It’s the U.S. Open, folks, not the Buick Invitational. The setup has been in works for years, not weeks. The requisite plan of attack is defense, not offense. Birdies will be in the trees, not on the scorecard. The U.S. Open, simply put, is the most difficult golf tournament of the year and for consideration, look at Woods’ stash of major championship hardware. It’s no mystery as to why he has won more times at the PGA Championship (four), Masters (four), and British Open (three) than at the U.S. Open (two).

Woods' is a game built around power, the most creative short game ever, and a putting stroke responsible for more clutch putts than defies logic. But thanks to the U.S. Golf Association’s fascination for narrow fairways that are firm and fast and rough that is high and thick, Woods’ power is not taken away, but surely it is harnessed, and his imagination around the greens will be severely limited. The typical decision will be something to the effect: Should we hack out with the sand wedge or the lob wedge? Such great intrigue there, huh?

As an example of why it’s so hard to win this thing, go back to the final round of last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont. Woods was at his ball-striking best, only the confounding course setup at a U.S. Open venue rarely allows for birdie binges. He made just one that day, at the second hole, and couldn’t chase down Angel Cabrera. For the second time in three years, Woods finished second at the U.S. Open.

USGA officials would rather sacrifice one of their cherished tax breaks than allow for a course setup in which birdies are allowed. They’ve got this formula well oiled, and if you give them two years time, they could come in to your local 6,275-yard muni and set it up in a way that would guarantee that the winning score will be somewhere between 282 and 286. Longer holes, narrower fairways, thicker rough, firm and fast greens — voila, a punishing test, at a par of 70, of course.

None of this is to suggest that it’s wrong. It’s the landscape and has been for years, so why complain? But it’s no coincidence that Jack Nicklaus, like Woods, won more Masters (six) and PGA Championships (five) than U.S. Opens (four). My guess is that when his brilliant career is over, Woods will have as many as six green jackets and a matching number of Wanamaker Trophies, but the prize he’ll capture the most is the Claret Jug, for it is at the British Open where his ball-striking and creative genius is most rewarded.

108th U.S. Open At Torrey Pines South Golf Course (San Diego) Tiger wins in sudden death for 14th major title Video: Action, interviews from tournament Opinion: Tiger marvels everyone, including himself Opinion: Superman gets best of Everyman Mediate, 45, proves he still has game Performance on 18th carries Woods to win Celizic: Greatness makes Tiger so loveable Open Mike: Don't change the 18-hole playoff U.S. Open playoff history  |  Leaderboard   Slide shows: Tournament  |  Tiger Woods A look at Torrey Pines  |  Hole flyovers Memorable moments  |  History  |  Champions

The U.S. Open? He’s prevailed twice and it will in all likelihood be the major championship he wins the least.

From the day it was announced that Torrey Pines would host the 2008 U.S. Open, the party line has been consistent: Chalk that one up to Woods, based on his impeccable success in the annual Buick Invitational. No question, six wins in 11 starts is heady stuff, but the only thing that the South Course as set up in January by PGA Tour staffers has in common with the South Course as prepared with calculated coldness by the USGA folks is a view of the Pacific. Everything else — the width of the fairways, the height of the rough, the speed of the greens, the firmness of the turf, even the sight lines — is different, so yet another edge Woods might have enjoyed is compromised.

The U.S. Open takes players out of their comfort zones. Players are accustomed to weekly tournaments on courses that allow for birdie runs and low numbers, but the U.S. Open is the polar opposite. On the one hand it does play into a Woods strength — mental fortitude — but sitting in the dark corners of a player’s mind is this reality: With the ability to make birdies so demanding at the U.S. Open, it is imperative to stay close, to not fall behind, because storming in from several shots off the lead is near impossible.