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A Run at History Images from Big Brown’s drive toward a possible horse racing Triple Crown. more photos

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The early stages of Saturday’s race figure to be a cat-and-mouse game that will be key in determining the outcome.

Only one other horse in the field, the Nick Zito-trained Da’Tara, possesses the early foot to challenge Big Brown over the first half mile of the race. Dutrow could tell Desormeaux to “send” Big Brown from the rail, but it’s far more likely that the jockey will settle Big Brown  inside and behind Da’ Tara down the stretch and around the first turn, with Desormeaux doing whatever he needs to do to keep the sand out of his mount’s face.

By the time the field reaches mid-backstretch, Desormeaux will likely guide Big Brown to the outside of Da’ Tara, to ensure that they don’t get caught in a pocket if one of the closers makes a premature move.

As Da’ Tara rounds the far turn, he and rider Alan Garcia figure to become aware of  a presence on his right shoulder. That will be Big Brown, still under wraps but gobbling up ground with a lengthening stride.

Big Brown should hit the front about the time he straightens for home, but Desormeaux will keep him in cruise control for as long as he can to save the colt’s most potent weapon: That explosive burst of speed that allows him to blast away from his rivals in just a few strides.

This will be the other key point in the race: If no other horse engages Big Brown before he turns for home, the race will almost certainly be over.

Casino Drive looked like the horse most likely to challenge Big Brown at the top of the stretch, but with his scratch it now seems that it will fall to Tale of Ekati to test the champ at the top of the stretch, if anyone does. He caught the leaders at that point in the Kentucky Derby, only to watch Big Brown sprint away to a 4 ¾-length victory. 

If Big Brown doesn’t deliver his A race on Saturday, Tale of Ekati, who finished fourth in the Derby, could put him into a situation he has never before encountered: a stretch duel. If that happens, the fans at Belmont will experience a thrill they will later have a hard time describing and we’ll all find out if Big Brown is made of the same stuff as the great ones he’s trying to join.

But I see no reason to think Tale of Ekati will be able to stick with Big Brown when he unleashes his big move.

Slideshow   The Week in Sports Pictures A kayaker flips out, a racehorse eyes the Triple Crown and more. more photos

By the time they hit the wire, I see Big Brown geared down and winning by four lengths as late-running  Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati fight it out for second.

As for betting the race, I’m going to be a complete contrarian and bet a $2 exacta box using four horses – Tale of Ekati, Denis of Cork, Macho Again and Da’ Tara – for a total of $24. That way, if Big Brown’s hoof is hurting him or he otherwise doesn’t fire, I’ll have a good chance of a payday that will ease my disappointment.

And if Big Brown runs the race I expect him to, I can just sit back and enjoy it with the tens of thousands of fans who will roar and scream and, just for a moment, turn back the clock 30 years.

More news

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  HRTV's Laffit Pincay and Joel Siegel talk about the chances for "I'll Have Another" to in the Belmont Stakes on June 9.

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Chasing the Crown

  Slideshow: I'll Have Another one win away from becoming the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

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