Hoof crack and heat won't stop Big Brown
Speed, tractability will spur horse to win Belmont Stakes, Triple Crown
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Big Brown will have to cover the testing 1 ½ mile distance with a cracked hoof that caused him to miss some training after his victory in the Preakness.
The crack on the left front hoof, which was re-sutured and covered with an acrylic patch on Friday, did not appear to be bothering Big Brown during a workout at Belmont Park on Tuesday. But this will be the first time it has been tested in the heat of competition and, if it is at all sore, could be enough to get him beat.
Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. insists that the crack is not bothering his horse and said he will not use it as an excuse if Big Brown is defeated on Saturday.
Big Brown has a couple other potential obstacles to overcome as well. He drew Post 1, which means he will break from the inside and risk getting pinned on the rail by rivals starting to his outside.
He also was assigned a next-door neighbor in the starting gate with suspect manners — a “maiden,” or a horse who has never won a race, named Guadalcanal. Since inexperienced horses don’t always break straight, there’s also a chance that he could break inward and bump Big Brown in the initial strides of the race, which could prove disastrous.
And it’s going to be hot. Forecasters are calling for temperatures in the 90s on Saturday. I have no idea what the weather was like when Big Brown made his first career start last year at Saratoga on Sept. 3, but this is likely to be the hottest weather he’s encountered.
One of the biggest challenges Big Brown would have faced was removed early Saturday with the scratch of the Japanese-owned colt Casino Drive with a bruised foot. Casino Drive was entered in the Belmont Stakes because his pedigree is well-suited to the marathon distance. His dam, Better Than Honour, gave birth to the last two winners of the race – the filly Rags to Riches and Jazil.
That means Big Brown will face eight challengers, all but two of which he has beaten before. And those two have not yet proven themselves to be Triple Crown caliber horses.
Although 10 horses have won the first two races in the series — the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes — only to fall short in the marathon Belmont Stakes since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978, there are good reasons to think that Big Brown will not become the 11th straight to taste defeat. He is simply too good to lose to these horses if he is right.
Big Brown’s greatest assets are his speed and tractability. He is capable of maintaining a high cruising speed through the early stages of the race, but he is not a “need to lead” runner and will settle wherever jockey Kent Desormeaux places him.
Another big edge is perched on his back. Desormeaux knows all too well what it’s like to see a Triple Crown vanish in the last few strides of the Belmont Stakes. He was aboard Real Quiet in 1998 when Victory Gallop passed him in the shadow of the wire to win by a nose. This time, he’ll be sure not to ask Big Brown for his all until he absolutely has to.
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