So, this is pretty much it. By giving Joba Chamberlain his first major league start tonight in New York, the Yankees are retreating to the realm of crossed fingers and rabbits' feet.

They're forking over the bullpen's bridge to Mariano Rivera, leaving the task to deadbeats and no-names. They're gambling the season on Chamberlain's ability to dominate as a starter, beginning tonight. They're counting on him being Dwight Gooden.

Which means they're tossing 2008 aside.

By putting Chamberlain into the starting rotation, the Yankees are raising the periscope above the tossing tides of this season, and looking ahead. It's not a bad idea. It's just something to which we're not accustomed. Conceding seasons and thinking about the future is something the 29 other teams do. Not the Yankees.

That's not to say the Yankees don't have hope, and the view from the Bronx is that Chamberlain can save this season. Thus, the good luck charms.

It's possible, but Chamberlain would have to be an immediate ace. He would have to make up for the struggles of presumed ace Chien-Ming Wang, the mediocrity of a couple of old guys (Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina), and the flameouts of a couple of young guys (Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes). He would have to put up a better-than-Gooden first season.

That's just not likely to happen. Chamberlain is good, and he has had the benefit of getting his toes wet in the big league pool as a reliever. His fastball comes in at 98, he has a great slider and a very good curve. He has worked on his changeup, though we have yet to see it much. The stuff is there for Chamberlain to dominate.

But he still is just 22. He has made 15 professional starts, seven of them at Class A. As good as guys like Gooden or Tom Seaver were in their first go-rounds, most greats aren't great from the beginning.

Nolan Ryan was 6-9 in his first season. Greg Maddux was 6-14. Roger Clemens had a 4.32 ERA. Randy Johnson was 7-13. I asked Maddux last month about his first season, and he said, "I just didn't know how to really pitch at the time."

Chamberlain is going to need time to learn how to pitch. We can only guess how he's going to handle the job. But starting him now gives him an experience jump heading into 2009.

When you look at how the American League East is changing, that jump could be important. This division will be geared toward young pitching in the coming years. The Rays have seized first place behind their pitching, and they have at least four more top pitching prospects in the minors, including last year's No. 1 overall draft pick, David Price. The Blue Jays already have the best rotation in the league in terms of ERA, and three of their starters are 26 or younger.

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Boston is introducing three 24-and-under starters (Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Justin Masterson) into its rotation. Even Baltimore has some promising young arms. The future is bright, and the Yankees can't get left behind.

In the short term, leaving Chamberlain to continue doing the job we know he can handle would have done more to boost the Yankees' 2008 playoff chances. Setup men who dominate a game -- sometimes just with their presence, with the threat of them entering the game -- are incredibly rare. New Yankees boss Hank Steinbrenner doesn't see much value in that role (he noted that having Chamberlain in the bullpen was a, "waste"), but it's hard to believe general manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi really agree. They know how fickle bullpens are. When you get a sure thing, any baseball guy knows to cherish it.

Fitting that last night, the eve of Chamberlain's debut, saw his eighth-inning replacement, Kyle Farnsworth, allow the Twins' winning run. Farnsworth was lucky to only allow one run -- he got an out by sacrifice bunt and another by pickoff. He now has an 8.69 ERA in his last seven appearances and may not be long for the job.

But it doesn't really matter. Starting tonight, this Yankees team is no longer geared towards this year, so whether Farnsworth (or whomever) blows early June games in Minnesota is of no consequence. Another playoff appearance, another early round exit -- these don't matter, either, though no one would admit it. What counts is how Chamberlain develops, and how Hughes and Kennedy bounce back from rough starts and injuries. What counts is having those guys ready to be frontline starters next year.

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Cashman's complicity in all this might seem odd. Given that he is in the final year of his contract and with a new regime in place, it is assumed he's fighting for his job. He doesn't seem to have much motivation for putting aside 2008 in favor of looking ahead to a Yankees future he probably won't be around to see. But consider this scenario: The Yankees miss the playoffs, Cashman is fired, he takes a year off and the 2009 Yankees' rotation blossoms, proving that Cashman's prudence in building this team -- and refusing to trade away the young talent -- was correct all along. Imagine how high his value would be for teams in need of a general manager next season.

So this is it. Chamberlain is a starter, and the only way the Yankees are going to the playoffs is with plenty of luck. In 2008, at least.

With this move, 2009 could be a different story.