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NBA lottery: Where math, cheating, hoops meet

Even math academics struggle over draft's rules to prevent tanking

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By Ethan J. Skolnick
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 11:37 a.m. ET May 20, 2008

Pat Williams doesn't need shelter in Secaucus, N.J., this week. He doesn't need any four-leaf clovers or Lucky Charms cereal boxes. He doesn't need any of the remarkable luck that rendered him the NBA's all-time draft lottery champion, with four victories for two franchises in less than a quarter-century.

Williams is the senior vice president of the Orlando Magic, and he doesn't need any of that because the Magic made the playoffs this season.

So, if anyone needs his assistance, he's available.

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"I've learned at the end of the day it's all about the pingpong balls, and I've never understood why we don't get more calls from other teams," Williams said. "We raise these pingpong balls out there on Disney property, and sprinkle pixie dust on them. A lot of stuff goes on out there on this pingpong farm. ... If Dwyane wanted to make a deal on our condo in Secaucus, or anything about the pingpong balls, you know, we're available."

Dwyane is Dwyane Wade, the Miami Heat's star guard and the team's representative at Tuesday's lottery. The Heat's reward for an miserable season? Due to the league's ongoing attempt to achieve parity while discouraging dumping, the franchise will get 250 of the 1,000 pingpong balls picked to determine draft order.

That gives them a 25 percent shot at picking first overall, and getting a choice of two prodigies, either Kansas State forward Michael Beasley or Memphis guard Derrick Rose. The Heat have a 21.5 percent chance of choosing second.

Of course, history is against them, as the team with the most pingpong balls hasn't landed the top pick since Williams' Magic took Dwight Howard in 2004. So they are fearful they will slide to the third slot (17.8 percent chance) or, in the worst-case scenario, the fourth (35.8 percent) — while the 48-win Golden State Warriors cash in on their 0.5 percent shot for the first pick.

Some would see a Heat drop as justice after Pat Riley's team finished its season with virtually all of its early-season rotation players either traded or disabled. Even the All-Star they acquired for center Shaquille O'Neal — forward Shawn Marion — missed the final month with a back ailment.

The Heat denied tanking, as so many other franchises have denied doing so before.

That prospect, however, is the reason an NBA lottery exists. It's also why academics have gone to great mathematical lengths to look into the process, including a study published in 2002 in The Journal of Labor Economics.

Major League Baseball and the NFL slot teams in the draft based on reverse order of record. Most fans ignore the baseball draft, and NFL teams would prefer to select later rather than pay the exorbitant prices for high picks. The NHL holds a lottery for just the first selection and allows entrance to only the five worst teams.

The NBA established its lottery in 1985, largely in response to the Houston Rockets.

"Houston literally dumped the entire last 20 games or so," Williams said. "In those days ... nobody was following it. But they just died."

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From 1966 to 1984, the NBA held a coin flip between the worst team in each conference. Houston was the worst team in the West in 1983-84, and the fourth-worst overall.

The Rockets, with Ralph Sampson at center, entered March with a 24-36 record, but went a reprehensible 5-17 the rest of the way. If they did deliberately dump games, they had reasonable cause. The 1984 draft featured several future Hall of Famers, including a local college product then named Akeem Olajuwon. Houston took the center first overall, two spots before Chicago picked Michael Jordan. A decade later, Olajuwon led the Rockets to two titles.

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Patrick Ewing was the draft treasure in 1985 and, in the old system he would have been an Pacer or Warrior, because Indiana and Golden State tied for the fewest wins that season. Instead, the NBA gave all seven non-playoff teams equal shots at the top selection, and seeded them based on when commissioner David Stern drew an envelope with their logo. The Warriors got the seventh slot. The big-market New York Knicks got the first, inspiring conspiracy theories.


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