Sam Smith

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant aren't available, but after the NBA draft lottery, the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat have emerged as the winners.

That's because the general feeling among NBA executives and scouts is, like last season, two players are seen as team changers, with Memphis point guard Derrick Rose and Kansas State forward Michael Beasley. Rose has edged ahead of Beasley lately for the draft's top spot.

"There are two All Star caliber players in this draft and it's Rose and Beasley," said one top NBA personnel evaluator. "Beasley's going to score, but to me Rose has the greatest chance to impact winning, especially the way the game is played now. He's physically gifted, has good character. There's no chance he misses."

Though Beasley put up much bigger offensive and rebounding numbers and seems able to step right into an NBA power forward job, some concerns remain about his maturity and commitment to work and improve. Some teams like him as the top pick, though with the recent success of point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams, Rose figures to be the top prize.

Added one veteran NBA coach: "All year I've felt Rose is No. 1. The league has become so guard dominant.  I think he could be the next high level point guard."

Al Horford last year was a nice consolation prize at No. 3, though it became somewhat unclear thereafter. If you redid last year, the top three picks likely remain the same. But you'd have to think Al Thornton, Rodney Stuckey, Thaddeus Young, Carl Landry and Joakim Noah all would have been drafted after the top three.

It seems somewhat similar this time.

The general feeling is Stanford's Brook Lopez is close to a consensus choice after the top two, but with no guarantee. Several teams like different players among the core of small shooting guards who seems to line up after Rose and Beasley.

"There is the top two guys," said another personnel chief. "But there's up to seven players who'll probably have impact and get in your rotation next season. It's finding out which one. A lot will depend on the fit with the individual team."

Special feature The class of 2008 See images of the top NBA prospects in the 2008 draft, like O.J. Mayo and Michael Beasley. NBCSports.com

The Miami Heat, amazingly with Shaquille O'Neal for half the season and Dwyane Wade for much of the season, had the best chance at the No. 1 pick because of their league worst 15-67 record, but had to settle for No. 2.

Chicago, with its 33-49 record, had a 1.7 percent chance to earn the top pick.

Last year, Portland came up from sixth poorest record to get the No. 1 pick. The teams with the best odds got the top picks in 2003 and 2004, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, respectively. But it rarely happens. And when a future superstar is available, the lottery is a franchise changing moment.

In 1997, the Celtics (15-67) had their sights set on Tim Duncan. Instead, the Spurs at No. 3 got Duncan and began a dynasty while the Celtics collapsed. Golden State had the best odds for No. 1 and Yao Ming in 2002, but fell to No. 3 and Mike Dunleavy.

Still, even if a team doesn't get a shot at Beasley or Rose, there are some very good players available in the lottery. The question is finding which one.

It's not a particularly good draft for point guard, perhaps the NBA's most important position.

After Rose, the best is generally thought to be Texas' D.J. Augustin. But his size (about 5-11) give teams caution.

Round-by-round recap, player bios, more Draft report card: How'd your team do? Bulls make Rose top pick  |  Vote: Best pro? Wolves trade Mayo to Memphis for Love, Miller Notebook: Draft separates Lopez twins Blazers get No. 11 pick Bayless from Pacers Knicks pick Italian teen at No. 6 Special feature: The bad NBA draft fashion   Sound off on draft  |  Complete coverage

There's a surfeit of shooting guards, though many are somewhat small for the position. They are Arizona's Jerryd Bayless, USC's O.J. Mayo, Indiana's Eric Gordon and UCLA's Russell Westbrook. If any were a natural point guard, they'd be right there with Rose.

After Lopez, who's more solid than spectacular, the top big men are considered to be LSU's Anthony Randolph, who can also be a small forward, Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan and UCLA's Kevin Love.

But none of them are sure things, which turns the draft into something of a measure of personal biases and need. And though plenty of teams need a point guard, only the Bulls left the lottery happy.

MORE FROM NBA

NBA Section Front

Redeem Team thinking Gold Celtics to face Lakers on Christmas Day 2008-09 regular-season schedule Should NBA fear a exodus of talent to Europe? Report: LeBron would consider going overseas NBA rumors: 2 years, $100M for LeBron in Greece NBCOlympics.com: U.S. hoops team gets big welcome Agent: Veteran Boykins signs with Italian team Pierce cuffed, released after Vegas traffic stop Expert: Nuggets couldn't win big, so they're giving up NBA Section Front   Add NBA headlines to your news reader: