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Big Brown that good, or competition that bad?

Kentucky Derby, Preakness winner still hasn't beaten horse of real quality

OPINION
By Andrew Beyer
updated 10:54 p.m. ET May 17, 2008

Thoroughbred racing always is hungry for a new hero. And the sport particularly is desperate for a hero after the death of the filly Eight Belles tarnished the Kentucky Derby and produced a torrent of bad publicity. So it was understandable that Big Brown's victory in the Preakness would be greeted with elation and lavish superlatives.

"In 27 years of riding, I never saw a horse accelerate like this one," declared Jerry Bailey, the Hall of Fame jockey who now is an NBC commentator.

"This is the horse of a lifetime, said Kent Desormeaux, who rode the winner.

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Amid all this excitement, combined with the general relief that nothing catastrophic happened all day at Pimlico, only a spoilsport would point out that Big Brown's ridiculously easy victory didn't tell us whether he is a great horse — or just the dominant member of a weak thoroughbred crop.

Rarely do a horse and rider win any kind of race -- let alone a major stakes -- with such obvious disdain for the competition. After Desormeaux put Big Brown into perfect stalking position behind two pacesetters, he was totally confident he could take command of the Preakness at will. He kept his mount under iron restraint, looking under his shoulder, looking to his side to see if anybody was mounting a challenge. Nobody was. Turning into the stretch, Desormeaux urged Big Brown — without using the whip — for about a dozen strides, and left his 11 rivals far in his wake.

With the race under control, he said, "I just stopped riding." As Desormeaux forcefully applied the brakes to Big Brown, he was thinking three weeks ahead to the Belmont Stakes. He wanted to keep some energy in the tank before Big Brown attempts to become the first winner of the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.

Big Brown's performance surely gave the impression that his potential is limitless. Indeed, so did his runaway Kentucky Derby victory. But experienced race-watchers and handicappers know that these win-under-a-hammerlock victories are frequently deceptive. In 2006, Bernardini captured the Preakness and a series of major stakes races so easily that it appeared he could sprout wings and fly if his jockey ever turned him loose. But when he finally encountered a formidable opponent, Invasor, in the Breeders' Cup Classic, he didn't show a new dimension to his talent. Invasor beat him decisively. It is an enduring truth of the game: Horses don't prove much by winning easy. They prove themselves by beating good competition.

Big Brown has not yet faced rivals who can challenge him. The supporting cast in the 133rd Preakness was a pitiful group, with only two graded stakes winners among them. The competition was so weak that bettors made Gayego the second choice in the wagering, even though he had lost the Derby by 36 3/4 lengths. The Derby field had been an unusually weak one as well. And in the race that marked Big Brown's emergence as a leading 3-year-old, the Florida Derby, his competition was negligible.


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