Only two other horses – Hey Byrn and Gayego – have ever won graded stakes races against top company, and only Gayego has ever earned a Beyer speed figure over 100 – a mark that Big Brown has topped in his last three starts.

Many of his foes are lightly raced and capable of sharp improvement, but it will probably take a combination of that and a regression by Big Brown to trigger an upset.

Gayego, the only horse from the Derby to come right back for a second helping of Big Brown, looks like the biggest threat.

Gayego, trained by Paulo Lobo, broke a step slowly in the Derby from post 19, was forced to steady in the early stages of the race while in traffic and never got involved in the race.

In his previous race, he rallied from just off the pace to win the Arkansas Derby by three-quarters of a length over Z Fortune in what was one of the stronger Triple Crown preps of the spring.  The Beyer speed figure of 103 he earned in that victory at least puts him in the same ballpark as Big Brown, who garnered a 109 in the Kentucky Derby.

Gayego also possesses sharp speed, and will race for the first time with blinkers in the Preakness, an equipment change that often produces improved early zip. Since he is drawn outside Big Brown, starting from post 12, that means jockey Mike Smith should be able to either pressure the favorite early or put the squeeze play on if his rival doesn’t break cleanly.

The problem for Gayego is that he’s likely damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t: If he applies early pressure, he probably won’t be around at the finish. And if he doesn’t, Big Brown figures to cruise.

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That, to me, appears to be the key to betting the race, as it’s possible to play both scenarios with trifectas, using Gayego in the second slot on one ticket and the horses that look like the best closers on the other.

I was going to use Behindatthebar as one of the closers, but he was scratched early Friday. So I’ll add Kentucky Bear  in his place and put him in the second slot with  Racecar Rhapsody and Yankee Bravo.

You won’t get rich if you win, but you’ll stand a decent chance of getting a decent return on your investment.

My $1 trifecta tickets will look like this: 

• Big Brown/Behindatthebar, Racecar Rhapsody and Yankee Bravo/All.
• Big Brown/Gayego/All.

Total cost:  $44.

Best of luck to everyone and let’s get all the horses and riders back safe and sound.

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